...well the models match observations. Specifically, modelers have argued that the mismatch with observations isn’t so bad when they force the sea surface record in models to match that in...

...climate models”, the IPCC itself is backing away slowly from the overheated models and accompanying rhetoric. National Geographic is all in and then some on the climate modelers win prize...

...left column shows the warming trend predicted in the “low-ECS” models, or the models that have the least response to CO2. The middle column is from the medium ECS models...

...we get wailing and gnashing of teeth and declarations of a climate emergency based on overheated models. Scafetta goes on to show that the models that got the past more...

...models are left to their own impulses, and promptly overshoot. The real world isn't warming as much as climate models predict. That indictment was true of the so-called “5th generation”...

...the CMIP6 ensemble compared to CMIP5.” “CMIP6” refers to the latest climate models and “CMIP5” refers to the ones before. The authors go on: “Comparing the models’ AMOC evolution to...

...deliberate monomania by design makes the models overinterpret and hence overpredict. Thus Spencer then reviews the data showing that models over-predict warming and shows it in the surface record after...

...Not surprisingly, the model Earth warmed up. But it went rather substantially past where previous models went in that scenario, so they pried the models open to see why. They...

The extreme response of many governments to COVID-19 was driven by… computer models. We’re “following the science“, they told us (wherever it happens to be going today). “Experts say” they...

...not nearly as fast as climate models said it would be. The problem, they surmise, is that models over-predict the loss of Arctic sea ice: “Further analysis indicates that the...

...one problem in the models would lead to lower warming predictions, fixing other problems might make have the opposite effect. Moreover, there are lots of models that fit the present...

...but that same warming translates into less sea-level increase. Still, as more high resolution models become available maybe they’ll start shedding light on the general problem that climate models generate...

...sea ice does not. OK, but is Greenland warming the way models predict? Over at Watts Up with That Bob Tisdale has compared the climate models used by the IPCC...

...trends over 1967 to 2018 with the predictions from 24 climate models. The models also said that fall and winter used to be snowier and should now be getting less...

Or more precisely, climate models run too hot when simulating US surface temperatures. This was the conclusion of climatologist Roy Spencer when he examined 36 modern climate models and compared...

...significantly lower rate than is predicted by the latest climate models, and that much of the disagreement between models and observations can be traced to improper assumptions in those models....

...because they didn't take into account what the models show about how the Pacific Ocean behaves. Now a pair of studies have said reality trumps simulation and it’s the models...

At some point the fact that climate models are reliably unreliable should make discussions of exactly what’s wrong with them moot. As moot, one might say as inflation bursts loose...

...hope these models can get right given their purpose, NASA’s Model E like many climate models sometimes wanders way out into left field and generates temperatures outside any reasonable range....

...ask ourselves the proverbial question about the integrity of the world’s most up-to-date climate models: are we there yet? Apparently not; for however close the models may seem to be...

...proposed increased heat is missing.” More specifically, the Australian researcher reports that (1) the ocean temperature changes derived from models “are in striking contrast with the measurements by ARGO,” that...

...cost of carbon, aka why you’re a bad person to drive to work. They do their estimating via computer models, of course, which rely on assumptions like when it gets...

...seen over the past 40 years in the tropical troposphere. If the models are roughly right. John Robson While not all climate models predict warming that fast, they do all...

...home town? Oh, right. The computer models again. As the CBC adds: “The same University of Maine climate calculator – based on satellite data and computer simulations – forecasts a...

Models are everywhere in public policy today, from financial projections to climate change to measures to combat disease. But there are two residual problems. First, even if fed accurate data...

...so-called “coupled” climate models had reached the point where they were reliable for projecting the future (TAR Ch 8 p. 473). Narrator “Coupled models have evolved and improved significantly since...

...much warming, that "climate models are inconsistent with observed warming during the historical period." That conclusion applied to the so-called "CMIP5" or fifth-generation climate models. The new, 6th-generation models are...

...target: climate models. They claim that computer simulations conducted decades ago didn’t accurately predict current warming, so the public should be wary of the predictive power of newer models.” And...

...E. Koonin, physicist and former Obama Administration official. This week: Muddled models. Being a physicist, Koonin notes the strange fact that there are about 40 major computer climate models in...

Professor Nicola Scaffeta of the University of Naples Department of Earth Sciences has just published a detailed, peer-reviewed assessment of the latest generation of global climate models. He begins by...

...it’s so difficult to make such estimates. In climate models, as in reality, CO2 doesn’t cause much warming directly. Most of the supposed effect comes through feedbacks from whatever warming...

In response to our items noting the debacle of a push for alternative energy from Germany to California, some viewers have suggested that wind power has been very successful in...

...Dynamics 46: 2371-2389. The six scientists discovered that when compared to results of CMIP3 models, (1) “CMIP5 models do not show significant improvement in capturing observed features of the monsoon...

...models, and the results are not encouraging, if you were hoping to find out that the models are accurate. In another sense the results are encouraging. The models all did...

...showing that models show far too much warming. And the newest batch of models coming out, rather than fixing the bias problem, are getting worse. So scientists don’t always say,...

...“social cost”. And some economists have big complex “Integrated Assessment Models” that take guesstimates from climate models and combine them with conjectures from economic models, model how the models model...

...sea-ice reduction in the Arctic and too much in the Antarctic. The real Arctic has melted faster than the models predicted, but whereas the models also say the South Pole...

That climate models are accurate and can predict the future. No, wait. That’s what journalists and politicians say scientists say. Scientists are more doubtful. In 2001 the IPCC noted, quietly...

...of the models (a rate of 0.13 °C per decade; the solid black line), but dipped below the rate of warming predicted by the models around the middle of the...

...aerosol effects, “the CMIP5 climate models also significantly underestimate the effect of solar variability on the hemispherical and global temperature.”... “in CMIP5 models there is effectively no influence of solar...

...of the discrepancy between models and observations in that part of the atmosphere. To understand why it matters a great deal, have a look at our video. To see if...

...20th century is more consistent with low ECS (weak aerosol indirect effect) models.” High ECS models and low ECS models can both reproduce the global average temperature path, because they...

From CO2Science: The magnitude of long-term warming predicted in response to a given rise in atmospheric CO2 defines a model’s equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). Over the past four decades, the...

...TCS figure. It came out at 1.1C, whereas climate models on average have a transient climate response of 2.3C. So the models exhibit too much warming in response to greenhouse...

...95%).” So real world estimates are inconsistent with most climate models, i.e. models predict too much warming. Normally that would cause the scientists to fix their models. But not in...

From CO2Science: In a revealing paper Connolly et al. (2019) investigated the accuracy of climate models utilized by the IPCC to predict future trends in Northern Hemisphere (NH) snow cover....

...for temperature monitoring were launched) to the trends simulated in climate models. The older generation of climate models are called “CMIP5” and the bigger, better, more expensive new ones are...

...of New South Wales in Sydney, Australia. England and others are now working to reconcile discrepancies between climate data and the output of major climate models – efforts that could...

...flat—remains in current models." Seems alarmists were too busy castigating skeptics as "flat Earthers" to get around to making their own Earth models spherical. Simplification in the models is acceptable...

...future produced by some of the world’s next-generation climate models. But even the modelmakers acknowledge that many of these models have a glaring problem: predicting a future that gets too...

...satellites and weather balloons. Both studies reviewed a long list of models (38 in one case and 48 in the other--why so many climate models if the science is settled?)...

...much warming since 1980, and if it’s correct the models must be wrong. The RSS (which for climate geeks is Remote Sensing Systems not Really Simple Syndication) series showed a...

...models that say this are not weird outliers contrived by freaks and “deniers”. Instead they are the mainstream models used by, among others, the IPCC and the US Environmental Protection...

...ones, it is one more piece of evidence that most climate models predict too much warming in response to greenhouse gas emissions. The models with high sensitivity only get to...

...thought. Meaning forest fire activity in the past was much higher than now, and (today’s topic), the climate cannot be as sensitive to greenhouse gases as IPCC models say. How...

...letting climate computer models blot out sunlight could be a dreadful idea” and its reply included “Manipulating sunlight is a complex task with unpredictable consequences. Climate computer models, despite their...

...big processes driving climate change that aren’t included in climate models because no one is quite sure how they work. As in: decadal mismatches between model-simulated and observed climate trends...

...can see why climate models show warming over the Holocene: all that extra CO2 gets added to the system, and the models prove that CO2 drives warming by assuming that...

...makes these models totally useless for any meaningful climate prediction. I myself used to use climate simulation models for scientific studies, not for predictions, and learned about their problems and...

We have previously noted that the climate models currently in use are too sensitive, meaning on average they predict too much warming from rising CO2 levels than we see in...

We conclude our series on #ECS estimates derived by observing the real climate rather than running models with a September 2023 paper by University of Alabama climatologists Roy Spencer and...

The “ground zero” of greenhouse-gas-induced warming is not as you might suppose on the ground. All the climate models say it's about 10 km straight up above the equator, in...

...David Young’s very real critique of the way the models attempt to deal with Computational Fluid Dynamics which, she notes, “provides important analysis on misconceptions about global climate models that...

...unit of GHGs, and then predict how temperature, precipitation and all the other features of our climate system will change in response. John Robson So, it’s models all the way...

...causing, like (for example) difference in precipitation between two regions. Then you look at what models say is going on with that other phenomenon and use it to say what...

...RRS in the data was twice as large as in the models, and the only two models that matched the data were also the ones with the lowest ECS. He...

...peer reviewed articles in probability and statistics. He spent his half hour not discussing climate change, which he was not familiar with, but how models are constructed for other kinds...

...behind climate models’ confident projections of how the weather will change? It’s simple, all right: they guess. Specifically, a recent study in the journal Atmospheric Research notes, cloud physics operates...

...is important also to evaluate and improve the climate models. In fact, Fig. 14 suggests that, on average, from the twenty-year period 1940–1960 to 2000–2020 the CMIP5 [climate models] have...

...fluctuations, toward the chilly present. Still, the paper admits the temperature fluctuated in ways the models can’t explain and that the models need to do a better job of fitting...

...“the differences in SIE between the two polar regions are getting larger.” And a further problem, as they continue, is that “the majority of coupled climate models when run over...

...models were out of control and getting worse. (And yes, we told you so.) But if so, if the models don’t work even when their creators, like Dr. Frankenstein late...

...who thinks the models are better than life. But to many scientists who worry about the models’ mishandling of aerosols among many other things. And to Curry, who says “Relying...

...who provides a useful check on the buddy system known as “the science”. Especially its hypnotic fixation on computer models whose actual performance is highly suspicious. For instance “A computer...

...experts say, climate models actually predict that global warming will mean fewer hurricanes. Wait a sec. Are the trends supposed to be up or down? Down, say the modelers. So...

...they find some proxies, fill in massive gaps with computer models, put the resulting data-like object into other computer models and go “Aha, exactly as we predicted, except for the...

...and billions of dollars spent, our models are lousy at predicting climate change, in large part because we still don't know how to model clouds. And pretending they don’t matter...

...noting that “the sensitivity of regimes dominated by low clouds has been identified as the largest contributor to uncertainties in tropical cloud feedback estimates in climate models.” And, therefore, she...

...the IPCC.’ Climate scientists note that past climate models have accurately predicted subsequent rates of global warming.” Which is false. The models are notorious for “running hot”, to the point...

...under sufficient warming, with current climate models suggesting that September is likely to be ice free before mid-century. However, internal variability, physical differences between the models and evolving definitions of...

...models meant to predict the future cannot even reproduce the past. “The models, while accurately predicting the tropics, tend to produce significantly cooler temperatures of up to 20 °C (36...

...at the turn of the century based on the climate models that they’d spent many millions of dollars developing. It was on the basis of those predictions that they wanted...

...scientists have been trying to determine what ECS actually is, including using complex climate models to run “experiments”. Unfortunately they have so many knobs to fiddle they can always make...

...is to build a model that says we’re ruining it, then check the model’s findings against the model’s findings, or feed the model’s outputs back in as inputs in a...

...tapers off as more and more is added to the atmosphere. A new study using climate models unsurprisingly confirms this effect, but then finds something very unexpected: Past a certain...

...find some way of testing the models since they only ever make their predictions after the event has occurred. Instead with the Guardian we got “Such heatwaves are also about...

...done by those who want to keep getting grants. And speaking of models, the study hyped by Scientific Rubbish discarded the real Arctic, the cold place where paddleboarders highlighting climate...

...megadroughts since 800 CE.” So 53 percent of the event in question was not explained by the models that explain it. Moreover all those intimidating interquartiles basically say the models...

...and frequently being overthrown. Do you believe the scientific data that shows less warming than predicted by climate models? Or the science that shows hurricanes aren’t becoming more frequent or...

...would be like without greenhouse gases since we already know the models can’t get it right with greenhouse gases? Especially since the models are getting worse over time, not better....

...we take that output and run it through long-term economic models of the sort that have never been right.” When Dilbert responds “What if I don’t trust the economic models?”...

...only 4 percent in the amount of global low cloud cover, which is a mere rounding error in the models, would change the global climate by 2 degrees C, the...

...around 3C. Even so, leading economic models have shown that if the ECS is 3C then even though emissions eventually cause some harm, trying to stop warming would be far...

...take proper account of the benefits to plants of CO2 fertilization, and depend on models within models within models to put numbers to vague alarmist worries. But even with all...

...form get worse? Climate models project that they will. Er, well, some do. Turns out some project that they will cause hurricanes to get less intense. Which complicates the task...

...issue in this newsletter with the computer models that predict future climate despite being unable to predict future weather. Or indeed to predict past climate when fed the starting conditions...

...not well captured by global climate models.” So the models don’t explain, but they do predict. Glad we got that one settled. One skeptic in tweeting the CTV story noted...

...that the models are worse than reality, which means reality is less bad than we thought. Which, in some circles, is a problem, and to fix it we have models....

...then tell us it’s way worse than the models say. (In the scandalized silence that followed, we’d ask why the models always seem to underestimate the danger in news stories...

...of a storm track. Unfortunately, however, they report that this phenomenon represents “a considerable source of error for general circulation models.” Paper reviewed: Davini, P. and D’Andrea, F. 2016. Northern...

...Toews has to say about AI. “Modern AI models consume a massive amount of energy, and these energy requirements are growing at a breathtaking rate. In the deep learning era,...

...rainfall patterns aren’t following the illogical predictions of climate models. According to conventional models, as the climate system warms, the air should absorb and retain more water vapour, so average...

...any effort to let you see what it shows because it doesn’t match what models predict. And now, h/t No Tricks Zone, we have learned of yet another data base...

...of it. Or so the models say. Oog, you may say. Western Michigan? Or “models say”? Yup. See “In a world running short on fresh water in its lakes and...

...talking models here. It will not be easy for people like Schmidt to admit that computer simulations of climate did not work nearly as well as expected in the heady...

...the models have roughly the precise detailed nuance of Minecraft. “Most media outlets including the BBC concluded that meant emissions could rise until 2025 and the world could still stay...

...“Those climate models that the critics claim are alarmist do a poor job of reproducing this phenomenon. That means that the models do not account for this critical factor behind...

...where wealth comes from, we want to ask a nitpicky question: According to your beloved computer models, how much difference would this drastic step make to global temperature in 2100?...

...“Based on orbital models, the cooling trend initiated about 6,000 years ago will continue for another 23,000 years.” Orbital models? What about CO2? Apparently it’s not that big a deal....

At a time when COVID-19 models are being lambasted for vastly overstating the mortality rates from SARS-CoV-2, we begin to wonder whether it’s some kind of iron law that every...

...0.5C. But that number is well above the trend line supposedly driven by CO2 increases. So climate scientists ran their models and tried to figure out if that kind of...

...burning fossil fuels.” There’s that “scientists say” thing again. Gavin Schmidt’s models certainly say so over the 20th century. Or at least he says they say so, by the statistically...

...to push us in that direction and hope it all works out: “climate models show that if we remove more CO2 from the atmosphere than we are emitting it will...

...OK, scientists rarely talk that way at least in print. The actual retort was “We are averse to the idea that climate models, which have gross and well-documented deficiencies in...

...of the atmosphere between the Earth’s surface and about 10 km up. Climate models say the troposphere should be warming there faster than the surface if greenhouse gases are to...

...before the mighty simulation: “Attribution science works by comparing climate models. One set of models will use data drawn from actual records while another, otherwise identical, set will be constructed...

...IPCC seized upon a new paper that used observations rather than models and not only came up with the old ECS estimate of 3 degrees C again, it also raised...

...above normal”. Except the numbers, on inspection, come from weather models, not thermometers, which right away tells us that the AP is being, well, just what you’d expect. As Anthony...

...dependent on initial conditions. Macroeconomic models are exercises in simplification whose characteristic results, like their design, do not inspire confidence. (Indeed we don’t actually know how much the economy did...

...the modeling problems. And the discrepancies between models and reality. And all the stuff that we just don't know, which happens to be a lot of important stuff. What happens...

As we noted last week, and most weeks prior, the computer models are terrible at making predictions. And then we cited Weatherbell’s prediction based instead on past weather patterns that...

...darned satellites don’t show much warming, at least compared to what climate models say should be happening if the climate is as sensitive to greenhouse gases as the modelers claim....

...with a best estimate of 3 degrees C, based on simulations from climate models. But as we showed in our video, in recent years a series of papers estimating ECS...

...the experts’ confidence in their models. The public broadcaster assured us that “the short-term respite doesn’t reflect long-term worsening conditions”. Faith being, of course, “the evidence of things not seen.”...

...climate models, that global warming is causing more extreme weather. And guess what? Using long term weather data from the British Met Office the GWPF paper finds that “although the...

...part I’ll look at why carbon dioxide emissions have proven so difficult to control in practice. And in the second I’ll show why the same computer models that claim man-made...

A recent study of climate models concludes that they are badly distorted. Which is pretty clear to everyone who’s not inside the climate echo chamber, which turns out to be...

...Like “could” and “many” and “if”. But who reads the fine print when “The new models suggest Earth could approach Permian levels of marine extinction by 2300 if emissions continue...

...You see, “If the loss of ice becomes so severe that the glacier collapses — something computer models predict could happen in 50 to 100 years — sea levels would...

...with global climate models propose that there may be a decline in the strength of high latitude and tropical peatland carbon sinks throughout the 21st century” in response to projected...

...to create any causal chain you like because the models are tested against other models and hair-raising predictions, not against actual climate data. And when they find something that might...

...cost of greenhouse gas emissions is nearly five times higher than previously thought, Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault said Wednesday.” What? Those complex models that justified, oh, say, a $13 billion...

...(humidity) in the atmosphere to rise (as climate models assume) it would amplify the CO2-induced warming. Indeed without it the models cannot generate scary warming from CO2’s direct effect alone....

...worth, which isn’t much in this debate, the authors of the American Meteorological Society study showing that increase say “Atmospheric models forced by observed [Sea Surface Temperatures] and fully coupled...

From CO2Science: As almost everyone knows, nearly every aspect of weather imaginable is predicted by climate models to become worse in response to atmospheric CO2 enrichment; and, therefore, CO2Science reports...

...inefficient policies they can, including piling bad policy atop good, and end up doubling or tripling the costs of any gains they do achieve. Still, if the alarmist climate models...

...facts are than what the models say they ought to be. The data series is the red line in this graph (LWdn is terrestrial longwave downwelling radiation, SWdn is solar...

...the parameters that define natural internal variability, and how fully these terms are represented in climate models.” Solomon et al. used observations of stratospheric water vapor concentration obtained over the...

...Which isn’t so much evidence as conjecture. Ah yes, but it’s computer conjecture, aka model projections, right? Wrong. It turns out it’s not even what models project. Not long ago...

...on initial conditions (SDIC) because of the famous “Butterfly effect” that explains why, to quote Mass, “small errors in the initial description of the atmosphere and deficiencies in our models...

...too.’” Why does he not know? It’s very simple and very powerful. It’s that we don’t understand the physics of clouds. Climate models gloss over it on the principle that...

...his computer models being junk and his theory wrong, which is a bit depressing. Bill McKibben has a much more ambitious scheme. Dim the sun. Not directly by going and...

...which asks “What changes in hurricane activity are expected for the late 21st century, given the pronounced global warming scenarios from IPCC models?” and “Have humans already caused a detectable...

...when Queen Elizabeth’s courtiers were wearing ruff collars or some such. But back then they didn’t have computers, which might make all the difference. “The researchers used global climate models...

...CO2 that leads you to design computer models that blame it all on CO2 and say told you so is, well, not real science. It’s a disquieting reflection on the...

...this mismatch between what the climate models are producing and what the observations are showing,’ says lead author John Fyfe, a climate modeller at the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling...

...Abstract bluntly declares that “standard climate models are rejected by time series data on global temperatures” while the conclusions state “the results imply that the effect of man-made CO2 emissions...

...wind and solar potential varies across the country, through the weeks of the year and the hours of each day. The models provide solutions for the most cost-effective new generation,...

...you discover something odd: It’s still very chilly. Even there. Interestingly, the original heat-into-the-sea trope was the result not of measurement but of its absence. The models were predicting warming...

...heat and devastating floods it’s clear that, although climate models have provided good information about overall rising temperatures, they can’t be sure what level of destruction each notch on the...

...the global average, the question of when – or even whether – they will be released into the atmosphere has been a matter of considerable uncertainty in climate computer models”)...

...is bad.) Well, that idea won’t do because, again, everything is bad. So the authors went out and with different computer models refuted the other computer models and showed that...

...things up since 1900 then clearly the sensitivity of the climate to atmospheric CO2 is so high that (a) the models are all wrong and (b) nature is so fragile...

...according to “scientists”, it’s not there later in a computer: “Climate models project significant declines in Antarctic sea ice to which the emperor penguin life cycle is closely tied”. If...

From the CO2Science Archives: The polar regions of the Earth have long been depicted as canary-in-the-coal-mine sentinels of climate change, given that climate models project that CO2-induced global warming will...

...temperatures have been declining. Indeed Spencer shows that since 2016 temperatures have fallen by enough to wipe out half of the warming so far this century. Let’s see the models...

...he is very aware of the problems of using computer models to predict the future. But his approach in the opening chapters is to say, in effect, I don’t need...

...it back, by excluding the sun from their models. Or rather, excluding solar variability. They admit the sun is there, and shining, but make it a constant source of a...

...Climate crisis? What climate crisis? Let’s go shoe shopping. Like the vision of the United States saving the planet from climate breakdown by using electric bicycles, “especially cargo models that...

...maybe. And if so, those odd outfits models wear when the rich and snobby gather might one day be made of pineapple waste or lab-grown mycelium. But the audience will...

...the second half of this century even if emissions of greenhouse gases were cut dramatically, according to new research.” Which as we have noted is indeed what the models say...

...poles than climate models previously estimated”. And, our correspondent notes, one could easily have greeted this finding with “Real World Data Shows That Climate Models Are Incredibly Wrong” or even...

...in the western tropical Pacific and also contributed to the infamous hiatus. And that computer models tended to say warming should weaken the Walker Circulation and it didn’t happen although...

...expect with random chance. But aren’t we already being told that climate change is here? And the climate models are accurate? If both claims were true the patterns we’re observing...

...retreat to more solid ground, you’re still in the mire, because we don’t know what the climate would do without human influence. No, really. The models think it would be...

...insight into what science does, and does not, actually say. “Radar surveys have previously mapped Greenland's bedrock buried beneath two to three thousand meters of ice. Mathematical models were used...

...sea level increases predicted by the IPCC would cause major problems, if they actually happened. Turns out (stop us if you’ve heard this before) the models were wrong. While sea...

...they predicted.” In the 5th Assessment Report they had an extended discussion of the fact that after 1998 warming slowed to a crawl and was far below what models said...

...vanishing. Though actually they were growing. And here’s something else that’s not cooperating: “Satellite Data: coolest monthly tropics temperature in over 10 years”. Yup. The spot where all the models...

...century than models have been projecting. Which will come as no surprise to CDN readers, or anyone else who pays more attention to real world data than IPCC climate models....

...better if you’re an alarmist, than they would have done if their authors had just used the historical average. So almost all the hurricane models have a built-in bias toward...

...predicts.” Interesting. Not “was unleashed”, despite 2023 being hotter than scientists expected with their totally reliable models and settled science. Will be. And to quibble, we’ve noted repeatedly that according...

...big question is: Are the Times writers unaware, or do they not care, that the alarmists’ own models say if everyone met their Paris targets it would make a trivial...

...seems to be warming at only half the rate the models predicted, which puts us at the back of the class unless, um, the models are overstating warming everywhere. Undeterred,...

...of sound and fury signifying nothing. For one thing, normally these sorts of upping-the-ante stories say the situation is worse than the infallible models predicted last time. This one says...

...worldwide. However, these glacier masses could not possibly have been that large at the time, according to climate models. Also, there is no geological evidence at higher latitudes for such...

...population was way smaller and communications and weather record keeping were less advanced as well.) Finally, for now at least, when it comes to predicting stronger hurricanes, some models do,...

...for CO2, CH4 and NO. That they just made those numbers up. It would have been a lot better to have a computer make them up. After all, what models...

...actors like China in particular cut back. But it’s also that no cuts anyone is talking seriously about will change the trajectory the models say we’re on. However evidently when...

...end of the range projected in climate models. As for their statistical model, he says it makes a comparison that didn't support the headline claims of the paper. They used...

...just beginning to emerge in the observations.” But it’s widely expected from model results because you tweaked and torqued the models until they predicted it. And if it does something...

...on climate change is actually a large and complex river with many currents and eddies. If you pick any specific topic, such as whether climate models are accurate, or how...

...one. In case you think the computer models have it all figured out, the study also includes these two charts that overlay the reconstructed summer and winter temperatures with climate...

...he slips the horseshoe into the boxing glove. They went and looked at periods of rapid sea-level rise because their computer models say it’s going to happen again. In doing...

...change, which they call an unproven theory based on computer models whose predictions do not match the evidence. Their surprisingly strong statement and the number of signers gives the lie...

...muralis, Psammodromus algirus, Rhinechis scalaris, Timon lepidus, and Zamenis longissimus. Trends in the data were derived using generalized additive models. Additionally, generalized linear models were utilized to explore the impact...

...noting, with respect to the future, that “regional climate models (RCMs) are among the most promising tools to simulate climate on the regional scale.” However, they say that “the effective...

...more garbage out in smaller pieces, refining the models so they generate predictions that are more granular without being any more accurate. Or less political. One author admits he was...

...climate models rather than direct observation”. Except the models routinely predict or claim more heating than direct observation shows, not more. (Which didn’t bother Scientific American either as it too...

From the CO2Science Archive: In providing the background for their study, Kirchman and Van Keuren (2017) write that “climate niche models of boreal forest bird breeding ranges predict large shifts...

Since scientific proof has nowadays ditched boring old-fashioned tools like physical theories and real-world data for computer models and colourful cartoons, we have all been treated to learned explanations about...

...in projections (---). The reliability of the representation of the event in question in the climate models used in a study is essential (---). Extreme events characterized by atmospheric dynamics...

...is based on climate models that use supercomputers to simulate the physical processes that will change as the climate changes. Looking at those models, we see a gradual weakening of...

...own models, make only a trivial difference between now and 2100. And yet we are not going to meet even those targets and instead of sitting at his desk thinking...

...whole planet. Fortunately we live in our surprisingly robust real world, not in the authors’ computer. As with so many such studies it’s all just computer models guessing at stuff,...

...filled the gap, also trying to address differences between Edwardian and modern sampling methods. It hardly need be said that what happens inside models generally stays inside models. But at...

...the oceans. It might be natural variability, but whatever its explanation it is not replicated in most climate models.” Perhaps because most climate models don’t replicate oceans well. Or measurement...

...to be overestimated today.”) We especially draw attention to his opening description of why climate models get clouds wrong, and indeed why climatologists themselves misunderstand clouds. It is that “In...

...year. On average, over the past 17 years, the summer months lead to a September sea ice extent of about 4.6 million square km. And the models predicted the ice...

...a trend computer models say will likely continue. After last year’s IPCC report about 1.5˚ warming scenarios the media breathlessly declared such an increase catastrophic. Yet we not only survived...

...or causes, one thing is certain: all of the climate models have failed to predict the observed increase in Southern Hemisphere sea ice extent. Rather, as reported in the most...

...a crisis in the actual data, one looms in the models. And so “Extreme weather threatens world’s biggest carbon store as the rainforest is already close to tipping point”. As...

...then adds, “His claims are the habitual alarmist mantra in contrast to empirical observations.” But “if the WMO’s models are right then we can expect a large increase in global...

...bad weather that wiped out harvests and cattle herds. John Robson Which is very important because modern climate orthodoxy insists, based on computer models, that one reason warming is bad...

...But IPCC models assume the sensitivity is twice that high, at 3 degrees. So the real message of the ocean data is that CO2 doesn't cause as much warming as...

...fancy new method, that the oceans had absorbed far more heat than indicated in other data sets. The finding was important because computer models were projecting more warming than was...

...and says “our bet is on the latter explanation”. Surely the real question is why the models don’t just inaccurately simulate such impacts, but always seem to botch it in...

...on which to savour a Foster’s. But don’t forget bad computer models, including the one that said beaches were going fast and would go faster; it turns out they were...

...and down it goes: “Models predict that with additional warming, more lake-effect snow will occur. But over time, the warming will lead to more of the precipitation falling as lake-effect...

Isn't the Arctic supposed to be melting? Maybe inside computer models. But according to Environment Canada, out there in the real world it’s getting snowier. Embarrassingly, America’s Glacier National Park...

...an even bigger East Antarctic Ice Sheet that seems insolently to have been gaining mass lately even though models told it to melt and drown us all.) The authors of...

...piece immediately added “Other climate models have said the AMOC will weaken over the coming century but that a collapse before 2100 is unlikely.” Still, time to panic! Right? Obviously...

...and they came up with “By 2099, the models found, that United States forest fire risks may increase by between four and 14 times, depending on different carbon emissions scenarios....

...do”. As CDN has noted more than a few times, the climate alarmists’ computer models have some serious defects, like not being able to predict the past and being so...

...Backgrounder here) based on observations rather than computer models. These days the latter say ECS is between 1.8C and 5.6C. And the range matters, a lot, because economists say that...

...regardless of the predictions from climate models, if you are hoping Antarctica will soon be a balmy waterfront paradise, you will be waiting many lifetimes. Richard reports on new studies...

...obvious unsustainability. And yet even if we all did meet them, the result according to the alarmists’ computer models would be to slow the increase in temperature by 2100 by...

From the CO2Science archive: Climate models typically predict CO2-induced global warming will increase the frequency and severity of thunderstorms. Consequently, hail frequency and intensity are also expected to rise in...

...to see significant warming is for their theory. And since the alarmist models basically blame all the warming on CO2 and related gases, if another factor is allowed to have...

...they say. The experts have computer models that tell us we only have 10 years until the climate crisis hits so we have to act now. But they’ve been saying...

In this series on studies that estimate climate sensitivity based on observed climate data rather than climate models, we’ve noted how they usually come out at 2° C or less....

...hurricanes to form. And models are showing that hurricane numbers may go down in the future due to greenhouse gases: “There is increasing evidence from modeling studies at GFDL/NOAA and...

...decades, the four Canadian scientists describe how they “employed climate scenarios from the state-of-the-art Regional Climate Models of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP), along with climate...

...more new policy, it is an argument for no new policy. And it is an argument for fixing the misleading models: Ultimately, there is no good reason why climate science...

...claim. And worse for climate orthodoxy, it shows that the climate models we’re meant to rely on to predict the shadowy future aren’t much help explaining the unknown past. The...

...“The study is based on RCP8.5, which is vanishingly unlikely to occur, and the study uses fine grained model hydrological projections.” Regrettably climate models make an even bigger mess of...

...predict the incidence of hurricanes, droughts or tsunamis over the next decade with sufficient accuracy that we have confidence in the models. For that matter, model them over the past...

...settled science was settled in a wrong way and, to quote the Guardian story about it, “Climate models show switch will happen decades faster than previously thought, with ‘profound’ implications”....

...about 3C, and could be as high as 4.5 or 5C, based on how climate models behave. Back in the real world, the data are stubbornly stuck at the low...

There’s a fair bit of jiggery-pokery in the econometric models that say we can get rid of fossil fuels at minimal cost. But simply look around you next time you’re...

...it is not enforcing will “change the world”? As we noted in our videos on the Paris Accord, what the computer models say is that if every nation meets its...

...told? In the wacky world of climate alarmism, every silver lining has a cloud. Thus “After decades of Arctic sea ice getting faster, models suggest a dramatic reversal is coming”....

...only 0.43 degrees C, about one-third the expected amount. Monckton points out, and we suppose it needs pointing out in the current dogmatic atmosphere, that the models that predict increasing...

...century, with atmospheric CO2 dragging along at 280 ppm, we’re gonna need some new models. In togas. Among other things, this discovery reinforces a point we’ve made before about the...

...climate models all have amplification mechanisms built into them to translate small forcings from CO2 into large temperature effects. But when it comes to the sun, the IPCC is completely...

...and the models until it’s silenced. (Thus we’re gratified that NASA now admits that “All weather on Earth, from the surface of the planet out into space, begins with the...

...here because if the alarmists’ models are right, we face all those horrible outcomes with deliberate and bold action too, and government insolvency on the side. He's also confused partly...

...models don’t work and our past predictions were rubbish. But there is this much to be said for it. The Prime Minister has long argued that we have to get...

...models. Ones that say we have a decade to act, too late to check common sense and evidence but just enough for a heroic rush into the burning planet based...

...in there, you get this passage: “Satellite observations and CMIP6 models agree that a relatively small AOD trend change has occurred over the last two decades, despite significant reductions in...

...cooler. But it’s hard to believe all this stuff is just the result of human error, whereas the reconstructions and computer models made by true believers are all beyond reproach....

...yet possible to predict how soon that would happen.” So if you’re into settled science, predictions you can test, and studies based on the real world not computer models, give...

...climate models so that there will likely be no change, or even a decline, in heat-related deaths in the future. The recent work of Follos et al. (2020) illustrates the...

...thing is clear, the 1.5°C warming experienced in this boreal forest region did not produce the positive temperature feedback envisioned by the models. Instead of becoming a carbon source to...

Atmospheric temperature data from weather satellites has long been a thorn in the side of alarmists because it tends to show less warming than computer models predict or surface thermometers...

...0.09˚C per decade. Then they went and did it again in 2017 and found the same result. The models all said it would be four times as much. But, he...

...be better able to respond to the temperature regimes expected under climate change than often predicted, reflecting the need to incorporate geographic variation in life-history traits into models forecasting responses...

While we were away in early August another important climate-related story was that the obesity crisis ended. Or at least computer models say it will happen when widespread crop failure...

...effect of global warming,” especially so since much of the CO2-induced warming predicted by the models is expected to occur in the winter season and at higher latitudes. Historic analyses...

...it did, according to the alarmists’ own models, everyone meeting their Paris targets would reduce warming in 2100 by about 0.1 degrees, a mere rounding error. Strike 3. If “Climate...

...And in the second, “caught” sounds bad but, as we’ve observed before, a big problem with alarmism, inside the models and outside them, is precisely the assumption that all the...

...for the decades 2050 and 2070 by integrating temperature projections from 19 climate models using 3 commonly utilized greenhouse gas emission scenarios (the IPCC’s RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). And what...

...unit, Polestar, and might even offload its 48pc stake on other shareholders, including China’s Geely. Last September, Volkswagen said it was cutting production of two of its flagship EV models,...

...extremely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.... Assertions of island vulnerability are based on outputs from flood risk models that simulate sea level rise on present day island topography...

...Latest climate models suggest it could be worse than we thought” talks about upward revisions in ECS and includes a “High emissions scenario” and, if you drill down far enough...

...climate warming, Canada’s peatlands are often overlooked.” Why are they overlooked? Well, one obvious reason is that because all the models say further warming is inevitable and must be stopped,...

...important don’t just think rainbows are important, they believe their models are so precise and complete that, despite their laughable incapacity to do clouds they can do mist so exactly...

...possible cooling. (It’s worth noting, as Taylor does, that this finding reinforces the credibility of satellite findings of a global temperature increase since 2005 far lower than the models predicted,...

...warming are bad, experts say. How bad? Well: “According to new analysis by Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, seven different predictive models suggest that sea surface temperatures will cross the El...

...the global sea level could rise by up to 10 feet, Scambos said.” If. Might. Could. According to models. Assuming it’s not still doing things the scientists didn’t expect. Doom...

...the models work and unless we repent the wrath of Goddess will strike us all down and rightly so. It makes for a great scare story. But speaking of Svalbard,...

...predict whether warming will cause more of them or not. And indeed the IPCC has avoided making such projections, largely because they recognize their models don’t simulate them with any...

...combination of observed data where available and data generated from 6-hour weather forecast models to fill in the gaps). These go back to 1958, and by clicking on a year...

...computer models. And as if weather were in fact getting more extreme, something not even the IPCC claims. But who needs facts? Everyone’s keen to do their part… as long...

Since we're looking at rainfall, we should go somewhere they get enough of the stuff to know when it's changing. Especially since Victoria is also where those mighty computer models...

...times. Finally, more settled science: “State-of-the-art climate models drastically underestimate how much extreme rainfall increases under global warming, according to a study published Monday that signals a future of more...

...they note that “long-term records of the earth’s reflectance will provide crucial input for general circulation climate models, and will significantly increase our ability to assess and predict climate change.”...

...from 24 different climate models; and comparing the results they obtained between1946 and 2007 with the measured PDI anomalies. What was learned: “Between 1946 and 2007,” in the words of...

...will be colder than expected, because of the fading of that effect, some other cause, or both. Unlike climate, which always does what the computer models say even if you...

...models that can’t predict known past warming, we say that the specific forecasts are rubbish but the warning that non-linear systems react in unpredictable ways is very valuable. Even sobering,...

...you to suppose. Because there it’s going to get ugly fast. Inside the computers. Except not fast. According to the Times, “’The models show that of the 10 most common...

...that “no models have moved beyond simple coarse surface hydrology parameterization as an intermediate link between climate and malaria.” Therefore, they describe how they “address this shortcoming using a sophisticated...

...weather data don’t show anything like that happening. The trend since 1959 is more like 0.2 degrees per decade. Even most obviously exaggerated computer models don’t show global temperature rising...

...and her colleagues ran some computer models with and without CFCs and related chemicals and it turns out if you set the parameters a certain way the CFCs, not the...

...is, the assumption that a doubling of atmospheric CO2 will produce an increase of 3° C once everything has settled down. But, he warns, models that incorporate that assumption “have...

...measures can possibly put us on the path to Paris, or that it would make any difference to global temperature in the alarmists’ own models if it could. Fundamentally, as...

...computer models to say the planet must be absorbing a lot of heat and since it wasn’t showing up anywhere it must have gone for a swim. Seriously? Of this...

...years, and climate models predicting the opposite, is it really a good moment for CNN to predict yet again the end of snow? It might seem so since, to the...

...Greenland ice, economic catastrophe, climate models and the scientific consensus. And then… we could go on. But the thing is to read the book. Go ahead. You have the right....

...models are right and the world warms due to greenhouse gas emissions, we’ll be able to deal with it. For instance, if farmers adapt to a changing climate they’ll come...

...who developed global economic and energy scenarios which were fed into the world’s climate models a decade ago got them utterly wrong. They projected too many people, too much economic...

...maps of hillsides and climate computer models, “The authors then used computer simulations to place hundreds of thousands of hypothetical ‘species’ across all mountain ranges at different elevations and then...

...of what the climate models say, sea levels insist on doing their own thing in their own way, based on natural influences. And lately it has meant they are slowing...

...company, every bank, every insurer and investor will have to adjust their business models.” To what? If it’s true you’d think they’d already be pursuing it unless they’re as stupid...

David Middleton points to a fascinating thought experiment that ought to be applied very widely to climate change models and theories. There’s this collaborative effort to offer a dispassionate balanced...

...the surface thermometer data provided by the satellite record. Climate models say that the troposphere above the surface should be warming faster than the air at the surface. But the...

...patient didn’t bleed to death because by the alarmists’ own models, fully implementing Paris wouldn’t change global temperature at all. Just the way cutting the arm off won’t make the...

...Icarus.” But clouds have a huge influence on temperature here on Earth, one that climate models handle exceptionally badly. And if Mr. Sun is affecting them on Neptune, which is...

...again, now including Ireland, victorious greens find that their plans would carry costs too heavy for the populace to bear and offer benefits that even their own models say are...

...their models they don’t foresee any likelihood that they will be able to detect a connection between forest fires and climate change. Pielke Jr. then looks at some data showing...

...flips. It definitely matches what the climate models show for the future around here…” But then he added “We’re starting to see what is becoming the new reality…” So we’ve...

...calculation, Brown shows, yields much smaller numbers than the IFAR method. Of course any such calculation requires models and guesses and extrapolations to construct an artificial alternative world without greenhouse...

...nothing abstract about a sea level rise predicted by computer models and unconfirmed by empirical observation, it makes you wonder what the editors think “abstract” means. Oh well. Go ask...

...and all of the world’s terrestrial vegetation combined. However, climate change may alter the stability of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in the future. Climate models, for example, generally predict...

...around the world. And notwithstanding the tendency of models to over-hype disasters, their map of future projections shows most places aren’t expected to change either. Another climate myth blown away....

From the CO2Science Archive: The authors write that “with global warming, climate models project increased precipitation variability in most regions at daily (O’Gorman and Schneider, 2009), monthly (Benestad, 2006) and...

...but also the “economic” impact, “the loss in real, or inflation-adjusted, employment and investment income due to carbon pricing under the HEHE climate plan” and computer models of the economy,...

...or even the same ones. And so it is pertinent to note that the alarmist models’ predictions are not verified by data. What about the Weather Network’s? We’re always grateful...

...to 2C than to 1.5C. But because that ‘if fully implemented’ is doing a lot of lifting.” And because models that claim to project temperature change to a tenth of...

...that climate models don't predict that it would, and that on balance the speed isn't likely to change much in the future either. The model simulations of the next century,...

...not caused more warming because it’s been offset by the reduction in aerosols that… no, wait a minute. The idea is that the aerosol cooling effect explains why the models...

...that if airlines want a bailout they should have to promise to convert to “newer, cleaner models” like, say, Leonardo DiCaprio’s private… no wait. Maybe a blimp. We recognize the...

...hurricanes. But he goes a lot further, suggesting that the basic models behind climate alarmism are quite evidently wrong. As a young child… I was given a book in which...

...and Germany have imposed a lot of pain on ordinary people for remarkably little gain in terms of emissions that the computer models think matter. And voters are rationally rejecting...

...23 priority bird species killed at wind and solar facilities in California, USA. Bayesian hierarchical models suggested that 48% of these species were vulnerable to population-level effects from added fatalities...

...atmospheric CO2 concentrations is the typical measure by which climate models are compared. It is also the standard by which the climate model projections tend to be judged; right or...

...We are moving full steam ahead with an ambitious climate plan.” But outside the suffocating world of computer models and press releases it’s extremely important that they don’t know what...

...made expanding Antarctic ice awkward especially as the models also said it should be melting too. Eventually the theory got stretched to explain why it wasn't, just in time for...

...the actual science” we don’t just cheer. (And add that the computer models seem to be tearing loose from “the actual science” rather than comprising it.) We urge everyone who...

...pact, if everyone met their commitments the models say it would only reduce global temperature by about 0.1 degrees C by 2100 which nobody thinks important and some of us...

...clouds. And that under some circumstances clouds reflect back sunlight and hence heat from the sun. If true, this finding means that the climate models with their every-feedback-is-positive built-in bias...

...question depend on the assumption that farmers will be too dumb to adapt, and that readers will be too dumb to question why forecasters run such dumb models. Eventually people...

...estimates and 95% CI from linear-mixed models for the change in elevation between 1993 and 2009 for high-elevation bird species. Positive coefficients indicate an elevation increase while negative coefficients indicate...

...Environment and Climate Change Canada who uses climate models to figure out whether certain extreme weather events can be linked to climate change.” And: “‘In general, cold extremes are becoming...

...(very likely). All CMIP5 models analysed agreed under a range of scenarios, except over the Iberian Peninsula (--) where there is only low confidence in projected changes. (--) reported a...

...pointed out, the models used by alarmists also say that if every nation on Earth were to meet its Paris commitments in full, it would change temperature in 2100 by...

...success it became a template for climate negotiations under Kyoto and Paris, in which expert scientific panels run their models and dictate terms to compliant and well-meaning government delegates. The...

...and (b) temperature for 41 temperate songbird species. Solid lines represent regression spline fits from generalized additive mixed models. Dashed lines represent 95% confidence intervals. Source: Dubos et al. (2018)....

...last ice age. When the glaciers began to retreat, the Sahara began to green up. And if the climate models are true (which he doesn't believe), up to a third...

...a mere $2 trillion… assuming the activists counted properly, the models work and the creek don’t rise. Some people think it’s a lot of money… although a major Canadian bank...

...THE MAINSTREAM GLOBAL WARMING NARRATIVE.’” The request then gave detailed instructions on including data, discussing faulty models, adding a bibliography and so on, only to be told “I’m sorry, but...

...lives in a world of dreams. It is not unfair to call this approach “magical thinking” as Robert Lyman has done. It’s bad enough when based on computer models programmed...

...effects [i.e., incorporating them or not incorporating them into the models] caused the strongest variability in future projections.” And that is an important take-away from this study - that the...

...the models told it too, NOAA kept the temperature line tilted scarily up to the right by pushing down on the left side, to the point that its own data...

...Most models show the maximum ice mass loss between 7,000 and 8,000 years ago, though some place it closer to the present, and all show a generally steadily-growing ice sheet...

...follow RCP4.5 for the foreseeable future. We already know most climate models run too hot on whatever carbon they are given. Now we know climate scientists also feed them too...

From CO2Science: Coupled carbon-climate models predict a positive feedback to global warming will occur if accelerated soil carbon decomposition offsets vegetation growth in a warming climate. Given that soil carbon...

...one thing it would not to is change the global climate; even using the alarmists’ models, a complete cessation of US CO2 emissions by 2030 would reduce the temperature increase...

...correcting for the urban-heat-island effect instead of nature’s stubborn unwillingness to do what the models tell it to, doesn’t look very scary in a lot of places. But we certainly...

...the report say? We’re glad you asked: Climate models consistently project environmental changes that would support an increase in the frequency and intensity of severe thunderstorms that combine tornadoes, hail,...

...role in ClimateGate. And they clearly won’t like these numbers. As some people may not like Monckton’s since he repeats his long-standing claim that the alarmist models are a mess...

...might be. (No, really. The models do claim to know what the temperature will be in 2100 to one-tenth of a degree if we do certain things but not others.)...

...or other changes in the nature of clouds. But it is not a prediction of climate models in response to increased GHGs. The discovery prompted the authors to look for...

...cubic cm of the stuff and wringing it out. It peers down and uses complex algorithms to assess what’s going on in the entire stack. And the models cannot begin...

...20,000 years ago. So take it for what it’s worth, which given the failure of models to predict the recent past given known data may not be very much. But...

...issue with satellite data that’s been causing grief for climate modelers is that it doesn’t show nearly as much warming as the models say should have happened. But that’s not...

...pleased since its “managed retreat” policy requires communities to remove structures from land that computer models say will get washed away later. Those being ordered out don’t seem convinced. Del...

...you believe the climate models, most of the impacts of emissions reductions will be felt in the 22nd century and beyond.” All of which matters. But so does the mundane...

...guys (yay us) and the totally evil morons (boo Trump). And anyone who thinks it’s important for climate models to make accurate predictions is pitchforked into the latter camp. It’s...

...many less-populous regions. But apparently not in the models. There, we’re in a heap of trouble. As USA Today puts it, “The study warned that unless greenhouse gas emissions are...

...years.” Bosh. Rubbish. Nonsense. Idiocy. We have cut expected warming almost in half in just five years by fiddling the computer models. Despite oft-repeated claims of plunging renewables costs, driven...

...or physical modelling approaches (---). Another approach focusing on the estimation of low-probability events and of events whose likelihood of occurrence is unknown consists in using physical climate models to...

...and what are the implications? We just don’t know. And nor, obviously, do the fabled computer models of climate that didn’t see it coming and must now be retweaked to...

From the CO2Science Archive: The authors write that “in response to global warming, most climate models predict a decline in the Meridional Overturning Circulation, often due to a reduction of...

...on climate, you can believe the models or the evidence, but not both. The article, in Hydrological Sciences Journal, points out that about 800 million people worldwide (11 percent of...

...climate models show lake levels could fall by one metre or more over the next 50 years.” 2007: “Global warming may drop Great Lakes water levels” “Water levels could take...

...on the Paris Accord, the alarmists own models say emission reductions on the scale envisioned under Kyoto or Paris won’t affect climate significantly and hence they won’t affect whatever impact...

...altered disturbance regimes (e.g. floods, fires, diseases) may mask large-scale signals (--). In addition, there is a plethora of models for the identification of phenological metrics from satellite data as...

...three years”. Part of the problem being that to measure its impact you have to know what would have happened otherwise and, computer models and their follies notwithstanding, we don’t....

...models are infamous for their inability to predict weather, even past weather, while the IPCC insists that we do not have much certainty even about what is happening let alone...

...As a result of this peculiarity, the fabled computer models need special tweaks to explain why the general upward trend during the 20th century was punctuated by a fairly sharp...

...might seem to be one more exercise in putting climate alarmism beyond the reach of empirical testing and into the realm of metaphysical dogma to say models don’t know whether...

...effects [i.e., incorporating them or not incorporating them into the models] caused the strongest variability in future projections.” And that is an important take away from this study - that...

...Paris targets because you know climate change man? Not that doing so would, according to the computer models, stop climate change or even slow it down. Not even if everyone...

...Source: Mariani (2017). References Araus, J.L., Slafer, G.A., Buxó, R. and Romagosa, R. 2003. Productivity in prehistoric agriculture: physiological models for the quantification of cereal yields as an alternative to...

...latest assessment of how bad climate models have gotten). If ECS were, say, 3.5, then doubling atmospheric CO2 would raise global temperature quite a bit. But if it’s somewhere around...

...the seas might not rise much. The IPCC relies on computer models whose predictions even of short-term temperature rise have proven to be systematically exaggerated, while the actual increase in...

...models. Neither does the weather balloon record, for that matter. Which is why, after a short interval of being feted by the science establishment for their remarkable achievement, Spencer and...

...you discard recent actual temperature records and then try to reconstruct them using the proxies, the models fail to reconstruct the modern run-up in warming, so we have no reason...

...are they going?” Not least because when it is pointed out that nothing Canada does will make the slightest difference, according to the models, because our share of total global...

...cover has long been an important puzzle in climate change.” To which we respond that you ain’t foolin’. Indeed a viewer recently asked us why the computer models put so...

...leadership in Washington is exasperating.” Also exasperating is the way writers like Cohen seem unaware of the fact that by the alarmists’ own models, meeting Paris targets wouldn’t change the...

...it’s 300. But they have a cool computer model. Unfortunately the alarmists also have computer models that, as we’ve observed, predict that if every nation met all its Paris Accord...

...times on social media features a man claiming that global warming is natural, CO2 has no provable effect on the climate, the greenhouse effect is negligible, and computer models used...

...that actually meeting our Paris targets would be of no use, not if Canada did it alone and not even if everyone did it. According to the computer models, even...

...of seven U.S. scientists employed a series of 11 offline and 13 fully coupled state-of-the-art Earth system models to reconstruct historical trends in GPP over the period 1901 to 2010....

...you’d have wanted to live, or how you should wish things were now. And they don’t. Indeed, they regularly tout models full of “tipping points” and runaway this and that...

...she pre-emptively blocked us when she discovered we were evil but it’s here. And Stephan Lewandowsky, an Australian psychologist (all together now, “not a climate scientist”) who uses computer models...

...say their results “demonstrate the importance and value of simulator-enabled comparisons of cloud phase in models used for future climate projection.” But their report on their research indicates there are...

...To assess the effects of DTR on cause, age and gender specific mortality, Sharafkhani et al. employed Distributed Lag Non-Linear Models combined with a quasi-Poisson regression, while controlling for potential...

...that “in the process” is suspicious. As we noted in our videos on the Paris Accord, if every nation including the U.S. did meet its commitments, the computer models say...

...as you with all those models we mistook for reality” it goes on to say the usual stuff. So our favourite in this particular genre this week is Reuters’ take...

...the alarmists’ own climate models, nothing. Narrator So until technology rescues us on the scrubber front, we shouldn’t waste money trying to stop climate change. We should learn to adapt...

...that it’s bad, with the cherry on top that it’s climate-related, your models are worthless. Just like AP’s “Lack of snow heralds a dry summer in Italy” or Euronews.green’s “Panama...

...was but a harbinger of worse to come. Instead, two months later Hurricane Wilma was the last hurricane to hit the United States for 12 years.) And the models are...

...increasing global temperatures, it appears that we may now be seeing the inevitable decline, long projected by climate models,’ the study found.” We especially like the bit where they treat...

...cost-benefit analysis reveals that a great many forms of climate protection are not cheaper, not least because the consequences of warming are not, according to the alarmists’ own models, really...

...about what particular technologies and firms are going to be winners, he’s going to be very lucky to break even? It seems highly unlikely. Does he have sophisticated econometric models...

...That models predict more and stronger hurricanes? But that’s not what the modelers say. What exactly are the alarmists trying to claim? And, more importantly, what do the data show?...

...they interact in ways hypothesized in some quarters and assembled in computer models that drastically oversimplify reality, human GHGs could cause not just warming but disastrous impacts of warming. But...

...at least stop with the character assassination and instead try to explain why with all that money, you’re having so much trouble persuading people and your computer models don’t work....

...at worst-case outcomes. In 2016 a team of scientists led by Delphine Deryng of the University of Chicago ran RCP8.5 through a set of global crop models two ways, one...

...whatever part of the rebound is due to natural causes cannot also be due to man-made CO2. And since the models deliberately exclude natural causes they exaggerate the impact of...

...is just weather. Only heat is climate. Including heat that only ever seems to exist inside computer models, like the ones that predict an end to winter Olympics. The researchers...

...run incorrect climate models even faster”. An exaflop is a quintillion calculations a second. But as anyone with life experience can testify, the capacity to make mistakes faster is not...

New in the journal Nature-Climate and Atmospheric Science is a study (h/t Fritz Vahrenholt and NoTricksZone) making a projection we wouldn’t have expected climate models to produce or for a...

...worry. A bit of time in the lab tinkering with the models and lack of melting Arctic ice will be a key indicator of climate change. And The Guardian asks...

...models say it will make essentially no difference in 2100. So if he’s right that 1.5° is sort of bad and 2° is utter disaster, then meeting Glasgow’s edicts means...

...released, was so far off as to be almost comical? What then becomes of the vaunted models? At any rate the finding may at least encourage beef and dairy farmers...

...they do it seems to be by ignoring such inconvenient truths. They just say the signal emerges from the noise around 1970, the models are accurate and the science is...

...connection with climate? The authors point out that climate models don’t predict or resolve tornadoes since they occur on too small and brief a scale. So no one knows. They...

...swings beyond models’ nightmares, of over 7˚C in four decades. Writing in Pacifica Tribune, and reprinted in Watts Up With That, Jim Steele explains that these sudden drastic changes in...

...Center. With nine models on display, it’s hard to miss. The electric car upstart has one of the biggest booths at China’s 2021 Auto Show, which starts Monday, opposite storied...

...line with the Paris Agreement.” But by the IPCC’s own computer models meeting Paris targets won’t change a thing in terms of temperature by 2100 or, presumably, the hideous weather...

...if training for a marathon that never actually starts. This time it’s “ancient sea sponges” telling us what the thermometer refuses to say but the models demand. The Euronews piece...

...levels.” In 2000: “The warming effects of climate change pose more of a threat to the Great Lakes than commercial water exports, says Environment Minister David Anderson… Computerized climate models...

...they can’t drive anyway. NBC did its best to make it all sound easy, saying “In Britain, diesel and gasoline models still account for most new vehicle registrations in Britain....

...praised earlier this month for warning that some climate models are running way too hot, also recently said it was a bad idea to terrify children with tales of ineluctable...

...it’s based on models that so far are proving to be pretty inaccurate. But the author said that heatwaves are becoming more common. Well, not in Estevan they aren’t. My...

...dramatic phrase. There’s a great deal more that one could debate including the inability of the models to predict the past because of their overreliance on CO2 as the driver...

...mess of all the models of their imminent demise take 14. Another study says that based on what happened in the last interglacial (LIG), the “Eemian” between 130 kya and...

...many other things in the offing, and similar expensive follies around the world including Stellantis, headquartered in Amsterdam and boasting of dozens of EV models and its aggressive pursuit of...

...to 600 years of cold weather. It’s a clever hypothesis. But could it happen again? Apparently “Climate models do not capture these events reliably” so um nobody knows and they...

...point out that climate models don’t predict or resolve tornadoes since they occur on too small and brief a scale. So no one knows. They might increase or decrease or...

...agreements the infamous computer models show… a tiny reduction in temperature by 2100. What exactly you’d do if you understood that point and still believed CO2 was toxic to the...

...learned is that experts and computer models are a dangerous combination. A third, and this to me is the most important, is that when it comes to making major decisions...

...within the dead plant material start to break the matter down, releasing carbon into the atmosphere. ‘Current models predict that we’ll see a pulse of carbon released from the permafrost...

...and indeed fear that it may become catastrophically worse. But one cannot accept models that say that all 20th-century warming was man-made and, on that basis, devise some estimate of...

...out to be wrong, it’s just too risky to do “nothing” so we should take prudent counter-measures. The problem is that by the alarmists’ own arguments and models, it’s not...

...saved these lives is effrontery. According to the alarmists’ own computer models, drastic cuts in GHGs will have no measurable impact on temperature for at least 80 years so it...

...journalists can come up with in their computer models and crystal balls. But we prefer hard evidence, and it shows that the warming we’ve seen since the end of the...

...climate models still underestimate the occurrence of blocking, at least in winter over northeastern Atlantic and Europe (--), which leads to caution in the interpretation of their results for these...

...these kinds of forecasts for a long time, warning about things that, by now, should already have happened, if their models are as accurate as they claim. John And I...

...and also that the Paris Accord is implemented. So these are the more likely future outcomes, and the climate models indicate that they result in far less warming and far...

...and claim their models show it was caused at least in part by greenhouse gases. “I’m appalled that such studies are given credence,” Koonin objects. “It’s like a spiritual adviser...

...up companies which have poor business models and are not resilient to fluctuations in price.” Unlike, say, the government? Now, what does anyone think is going to happen once the...

...gaps. Models on their own aren't reliable enough to go back in time that far, but when anchored to the points in time and space where observations exist, they can...

...two decades. No curiosity about it? What about the question of why the planet isn’t warming as fast as the models say it should be? Or how much of the...

...or to focus on meeting the goals set out in the Paris Agreement.” Regrettably the authors seem unaware that according to the alarmists’ computer models, if everyone met their Paris...

...North Atlantic Basin. Hence, although Keim et al. mention storm concerns raised by climate models, their study presents no data to support them. With respect to coastal storms of the...

...that in a hypothetical condition without historical anthropogenic forcing in the model. However, in a similar approach with two coarser parameterized convection models, Wehner et al. (2018) found conflicting human...

...uncertainty in just how much the U.S. has warmed in recent decades, even among the established, official, ‘homogenized’ datasets. This has a direct impact on the ‘validation’ of climate models...

...products. Wot? Reanalysis products like ERA55 are often presented as if they are the same as thermometer readings. But actually they are past outputs of global daily weather forecasting models...

...was the driest two-decade stretch in the Southwest in 12 centuries. Climate models predict the Golden State will endure more droughts in the future.” They do not know the first...

...Blacklock’s notes that: “Cabinet has mandated that all new vehicles sold in Canada be zero emission models by 2035. Currently electrics account for five percent of vehicle sales, by official...

...the models. But in the real world, the authors also point out that aerosols are forms of air pollution that have negative health consequences. So the tropical countries should still...

...models let smart caring people like them know exactly what the world would have been like without climate change and who should get all the blame. And yes, it’s all...

...gainful employment when climate models say blah blah blah? Arguably NBC would be better off having a “Climate Not In Crisis” section as well so that their own reporters as...

Ho-hum, some scientists wrote a paper about historical temperatures in Ireland. It being a real science paper, they actually dug into real-world information, rather than just running computer models. They...

...you’d have to do a more plausible job of filtering out natural cycles than the computer models that just assume they don’t exist. But when you’re breathlessly closing in on...

...it is today, and that climate models have been found to overstate current warming trends. These new studies fit the pattern. Even with CO2 levels much lower, nature itself was...

...out.’” Note here that it’s not whether our winters get warmer, drier and windier but as they do. The models being unanimous except that, well, OK, they’re not: “we don’t...

...And in the fine print the Times admits that according to their computer models, fully 5% of their projected massive wave of migrants would be “driven primarily by climate”. The...

...attribution, although such an increase in activity is consistent with the expected and observed increase in precipitable water associated with human-induced global warming.” They also said that climate models project...

...becoming more frequent. In some regions, these conditions are already approaching the limits of human tolerance.” But computer models to the rescue: “To assess future electricity restrictions, we merged our...

...according to the computer models. Meanwhile cheap oil actually heats your house while a climate emergency debate heats only the rhetoric. As the public sidles away from them the usual...

...and expert on insurance practice. He says while global climate models are forward looking, the actuarial practices used for risk modelling in the insurance industry are not. Put bluntly, insurers...

...river with many currents and eddies. If you pick any specific topic such as whether climate models are accurate, or how ocean currents affect climate, or even whether global warming...

...topic here). Furthermore, as noted by Linkosalo et al., they also demonstrate that “when phenological models are used to predict the advancement of the onset of the photosynthetic activity of...

...extremely complicated climate models based on assumptions that global climate responds to changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide. This error has caused tremendous loss of money and manpower without actually being...

...the answer, according to the computer models, is a vanishingly small fraction of a degree. Or that he has no idea. But either way he wasn’t saying. Rather than answering,...