In the midst of the climate crisis, with warming turning to heating to extreme heating, you might be caught off-guard by the news that there has been no boring old-fashioned warming, the one where temperature actually goes up, for nearly seven years now, since January 2015. Or to be more precise, no net warming. There was a temperature spike in 2020 because of an El Niño, as in 2016. But according to the best satellite data, the ups and downs typical of real-world climate have left us no warmer now than before anyone had declared a “Climate Emergency”.
That seven-year pause is based on the University of Alabama at Huntsville data series which, according to many, is the gold standard. By another very credible set, the HadCRUT data out of Britain (specifically “the sea surface temperature records compiled by the Hadley Centre of the UK Met Office and the land surface air temperature records compiled by the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia”), the pause has instead been… what’s this? Eight years? Yes. According to the irrepressible Christopher Monckton, “there has been no global warming for close to eight years, since March 2014. That period can be expected to lengthen once the HadCRUT data are updated – the ‘University’ of East Anglia is slower at maintaining the data these days than it used to be.”
The scare quotes, we assume, are because of their central role in ClimateGate. And they clearly won’t like these numbers. As some people may not like Monckton’s since he repeats his long-standing claim that the alarmist models are a mess because, among their other sins, “climatologists err by adding the large emission-temperature feedback response to, and miscounting it as though it were part of, the actually minuscule feedback response to direct warming forced by greenhouse gases.”
You can consult his post for the details of that particular argument. But one thing is clear. If the simple alarmist equation “More CO2 means more warming” were correct there would not be a temperature pause stretching out 7 years. And if there is one, then we’d like to hear the explanation.
Can you supply a link to the Un. Of Alabama data? I went the their site and found a chart that didn’t agree with your statement I think. See link below, thanks. Have I found the wrong link?
Thank, Louis Wise
Louise, the chart you reference certainly shows overall warming during the 43 years it spans. However, it does not show any warming since 2014. More importantly, 43 years is not really long enough to show whether there is a long-term global warming effect or whether the data shown is simply part of a cyclic effect with a period of a century or more. If old newspaper reports are to be believed, there were some very hot years a century or more ago - see, for example https://realclimatescience.com/1500-years-of-heatwaves/. And the way, contrary to modern opinion, making accurate thermometers is not rocket science, but has been around since at least the 18th century.
Follow the link "caught of guard..." to https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/12/02/the-new-pause-lengthens-by-a-hefty-three-months/ and you'll see the first chart is UAH measurements. Also noted in the chart reference is the link to the UAH source data, here: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0.txt
There's so much at stake if this 'climate change emergency declaration' is not challenged effectively.
@ Louis Wose
The link you need is https://www.drroyspencer.com/
I thought the U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN) showed no warming since 2005 https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2021/09/22/nottest-summer-ever/
Yes, I know it's not a global network. But a climatologist needs only one weather station anywhere in the world to capture any GLOBAL trends.