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It's going to have been hot

19 Apr 2023 | OP ED Watch

Oh no. “El Niño is forecast to return in 2023. Here’s what it means for extreme weather and global warming” says Euronews.green. And the short answer should be “nothing” since El Niño is a cyclical ocean current fluctuation not a climate driver or effect: “It is caused by ocean temperatures and winds in the Pacific that oscillate between warming El Niño and cooling La Niña.” But no. It seems that “The El Niño climate event is responsible for raising global temperatures and aggravating extreme weather events.” And all effects of warming are bad, experts say.

How bad? Well:

“According to new analysis by Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, seven different predictive models suggest that sea surface temperatures will cross the El Niño threshold by August. ‘There is approximately a 50 per cent chance of El Niño in 2023,’ the BOM warns. The climatic event could have drastic effects from searing heatwaves to stronger storms.”

It will be grim, of course:

“This year is already predicted to be hotter than 2022 and the fifth or sixth hottest year on record. The effects of El Niño take months to be felt and may mean 2024 breaks temperature records.”

And Paris gets it. The Accord, that is:

“During the phenomenon, the global temperature increases by around 0.2 degrees Celsius, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This could mean breaking the crucial 1.5 degrees Celsius global warming limit.”

And if we cross this “crucial” politically determined arbitrary line, guess what? Right. The terrible effects of global heating become terribler:

“As a result, the world will face more intense heatwaves, prolonged hot seasons and more powerful storms. Indonesia and Australia will likely experience hotter and drier weather with a greater possibility of wildfires. Monsoons in India and rains in South Africa might be reduced while east Africa could get more rains and flooding. El Niño also increases hurricane activity in the Pacific meaning places like Hawaii will be at risk of tropical cyclones.”

Likely, might, could, be at risk. Any chance of El Niño bringing warm and pleasant weather anywhere? No. Of course not. Instead it “endangers marine life along the Pacific Coast.” And the coral gets it: “Warmer water causes bleaching in coral reefs leaving them at greater risk of starvation.” It’s a wonder the world survived this long.

3 comments on “It's going to have been hot”

  1. didn't the Hartland institute in some of their papers state that El Nono did affect climate and that it was more pertinent than Co2 levels in many areas.

  2. Gregory: No, El Nino does not affect climate, because it is a cyclical event with a very short periodicity. It affects the weather by quite a lot, in the years it is present, though. As does La Nina, in the opposite direction.

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