Time to play some climate buzzword bingo. Has anyone got “according to a new study” on their card? Oh. You all do. How about “tipping point”? Yup? The entire room again? Dang. What about drought? Crop failure? Must act now? Oh dear. We’re all winners… and the prize is apocalypse in the Amazon. Because “The South American monsoon, which determines the climate of much of the continent, is being pushed towards a ‘critical destabilisation point’, according to a study that links regional rainfall to Amazon deforestation and global heating. The authors of the report said they found their results “shocking” and urged policymakers to act with urgency to forestall a tipping point”. And at the risk of being spoilsports, we have to ask: What model are you using that projects all these things but says anything we do now, anything at all, could possibly prevent it? Or are you just playing games?
The piece is from The Guardian. And via MSN. And the actual paper was in “ScienceAdvances” which self-identifies as “the American Association for the Advancement of Science’s (AAAS) open access multidisciplinary journal, publishing impactful research papers and reviews in any area of science, in both disciplinary-specific and broad, interdisciplinary areas. The mission of Science Advances is to provide fair, fast, and expert peer review to authors and a vetted selection of research, freely available to readers.” So it’s as mainstream as it gets. And about as silly.
The paper consists of the usual academic gooblahoy such that it’s hard to figure out when they think this disaster will happen. It seems to be in about 20 years, unless it’s 300. But they have a cool computer model.
Unfortunately the alarmists also have computer models that, as we’ve observed, predict that if every nation met all its Paris Accord commitments, which of course they aren’t, it would change global temperature in the year 2100 by roughly one tenth of a degree Celsius. And changing global temperature by one-tenth of a degree 80 years out means changing it by how much in the next 20? Riiight. Possibly well over one hundredth of a degree. And doing so, which again requires every single government in the world to hit a target virtually none now are, would change rain in the Amazon by how much? Riiight.
Actually the news story says:
“The paper does not give a prediction of when the tipping point might take place, though its authors say their findings confirm the risks and the likelihood that such a tipping point is much closer than other possible climate tipping points, such as the collapse of the Greenland ice sheet.”
So we get another of those kind of Blackadder setups where they don’t know what will happen or when or what to do about it but they do know we need to do it soon or one thing they can’t describe in any detail will definitely be worse than some other thing they’re vague about. Climate science activist journalism in a nutshell.
P.S. In a superficially unrelated story, Climate Home News warns that “Carbon offsets linked to high forest loss still on sale”. So even if you’re convinced that deforestation is coming, and with it doom, the mechanisms we’ve been sold to stop it might actually be speeding it up. This came is tricky.