Every time a hurricane strikes the US, which has happened less frequently this decade than most previous decades, the alarmists are soon out in force saying it’s “happening more and more” under climate change. Then when tiresome science nerds say, no it isn’t, they retreat to saying, yeah, but as the climate warms it will happen more in the future. Which isn’t so much evidence as conjecture. Ah yes, but it’s computer conjecture, aka model projections, right? Wrong. It turns out it’s not even what models project. Not long ago a team of scientists used a model with fine enough spatial resolution to simulate tropical cyclone (TC), aka hurricane, formation, ran the model with a lot of warming (the RCP4.5 scenario) and an enormous amount (RCP8.5). The result? “We find a reduction in overall global TC activity as climate warms.” So if the fabled computers are right, the more it warms, the more hurricane activity will decline. Stand by for activists to pivot to saying the decline in hurricanes proves we’re destroying the planet.
It’s not all bad news for the alarmists. Which is the same as saying it’s not all good news for the human race. While overall cyclone activity declines in their models, the researchers found a few areas where the smaller number of hurricanes had a greater tendency to be extreme ones. This happened in the Northwest Pacific near Japan, east of Madagascar and in a tiny patch of ocean east of Australia. (Or rather it “happened” in a computer simulation of these places which, we say again, is not technically the same thing.) But there was no prediction for increased hurricane intensity in the Atlantic or anywhere near the US coast. In the Atlantic, the models showed fewer hurricanes and no tendency for them to be more extreme.
Which we can safely predict will be 100% opposite to what newspaper columnists and politicians will claim if, between now and the end of hurricane season, a major hurricane hits the US coast. Whereas if one doesn’t, they’ll claim they predicted it too.