...published in Climate Dynamics in 2015, they also examined whether the warming hiatus prior to 2015 was having much effect on ECS estimates. Their analysis yielded a new ECS best...
In last week’s #ECS entry the authors came up with a model to estimate the minimum likely ECS. In this week’s, the author comes up with the minimum model needed...
We conclude our series on #ECS estimates derived by observing the real climate rather than running models with a September 2023 paper by University of Alabama climatologists Roy Spencer and...
For 30 years the IPCC said that ECS is most likely around 3°C, plus or minus 1.5°C. As we explained in our video on ECS in 2007 they briefly moved...
We’ve had plenty to say here at CDN about the elusive number known as Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity or ECS. If it’s a new topic for you please look at our...
...change in the amount of greenhouse gases and their energy-trapping activity in the atmosphere). Whether the Earth has a high ECS or a low ECS depends on how quickly the...
...evidence it might be even lower still. And since an ECS of 2° C implies climate change is not a problem, an ECS of 1° C makes it even harder...
...balance method of computing ECS yielded an estimate of about 1.6° C. But afterwards the IPCC released new data on aerosol forcing, and some new compilations of surface temperature data...
...between 1.4C and 1.7C. They also checked other ways of estimating their model, first by estimating climate feedbacks instead of ECS itself (which dropped ECS even further) or by including...
This week’s entry in the ECS-below-2 pileup comes from a group of scientists from Norway who we already heard from when we looked at Aldrin et al. 2012. This time...
...Backgrounder here) based on observations rather than computer models. These days the latter say ECS is between 1.8C and 5.6C. And the range matters, a lot, because economists say that...
...number ECS was almost certainly above, was 1.16°C. But along the way they also got a best estimate for actual ECS of 2.0°C. And they noted that their estimate “coincides...
...strayed into the field of ECS estimation and fixed a few errors. Lewis had a lot of math training, specifically in the impenetrable mysteries of Bayesian statistical modeling which apparently...
...question of ECS. So they got the data together from the usual places and did the usual calculations and determined the most likely value of ECS is 2.0C. What with...
We’ve reviewed many studies that estimate the Earth’s Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity or ECS by observing actual conditions outside rather than staring at climate models in the lab. The data so...
We have had a lot to say over the years about #ECS, noting especially the way the IPCC is determined to keep pushing it up above 3° C even though...
...ones that do, including the long, undulating decline in CO2 levels. And yes, yet again, the ECS revealed in this analysis is 1.7 ° C, close to the many others...
...studies we reviewed in our #ECS in the Real World series underestimate what future ECS will be. But a new study by Sukyoung Lee of Penn State University and colleagues...
...that there’s a fifty percent probability that ECS is below 1.5 degrees. They concluded: “High estimates of ECS… derived from a majority of… climate models are inconsistent with observed warming...
...most-likely value of 3.1 C. So when challenged the IPCC doubled down, or up, raising the ECS best estimate a bit, shrunk the ECS range and pushed up the bottom...
...see Figure 1). Consequently, the authors conclude that “the high ECS in CESM2 is incompatible with known Eocene greenhouse climate,” adding “we expect that other models with similarly high ECS...
...red dots show the size of the model warming trends and the blue line is the observed warming trend. All the high-ECS and medium-ECS trends are above the observed trend....
...left column shows the warming trend predicted in the “low-ECS” models, or the models that have the least response to CO2. The middle column is from the medium ECS models...
Dr. Kate Marvel, one of those scientists whose social media activities make it hard to believe she’s a neutral observer, has some bad news for all her Twitter followers. ECS...
We've talked about the problem of estimating Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) before. We even made a video we invite you to check out, because ECS is shorthand for a vital...
...20th century is more consistent with low ECS (weak aerosol indirect effect) models.” High ECS models and low ECS models can both reproduce the global average temperature path, because they...
...would you? In any case, as we showed repeatedly in our series on “#ECS in the real world” last fall and this spring, what data measurements verify is that ECS...
At CDN we’ve had a lot to say over the years on the subject of ECS, or Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity, the mysterious number that supposedly tells us how much the...
Scientists call the big question at the heart of the global warming “Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity”, or ECS. In English, it’s the total amount of warming to expect over the next...
...changes. Over the half-billion year record the authors work out that CO2 has an ECS of about 2.1 degrees C. In other words, doubling CO2 in the atmosphere leads to...
...currently uses 41 climate models with the rise in absolute temperature due to doubling atmospheric CO2 (known in the trade as “Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity” or ECS) ranging from 1.8 to...
...aside to talk about ECS. In fact we already have. We did a whole video on it. Which he seems to have missed. So here’s the brief summary: ECS, which...
...be expected from each relative doubling of atmospheric CO2. And as our new series “#ECS in the real world” began cataloguing several weeks ago, the computer models have consistently made...
...#ECS in the real world. And low enough to confirm that even if the warming continues for a century or more, it is not a crisis. We encourage you to...
...(This shape of the curve doesn’t depend on whether ECS is high or low though the temperature does, and for what it’s worth estimates of ECS seem to be trending...
...climate only through TSI, and he gets the usual result that greenhouse gases explain roughly all the warming over the past century, with an ECS for CO2 of about 2...
...the Earth’s Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity or ECS has been unknown for so long, the 1979 Charney guesstimate of 1.5 to 4.5 C not having been narrowed in the 40 years...
...to show that the problem is excessively high greenhouse-gas sensitivity or ECS (see our video for an explanation of this term). Even the low-ECS models warm too much. McKitrick concludes:...
...benign and will be if it continues, so profits will rise, and see what the SEC charges you with. As Epstein adds, “the Biden SEC’s examples of ‘climate-related risks’ involve...
...on what basis they keep shouting it. Second on Istvan’s list is “Temperatures will increase unsustainably.” But, he warns, it depends on “the IPCC nominal ECS of about 3”, that...
...facile doomsaying, showing how far the corruption of inquiry has spread.) And the IPCC’s Headlines tell us, predictably, that the projections on everything have gotten worse from ECS to drought...
...pre-industrial times. So now what do you put on your protest sign? If you watch our Climate Sensitivity video you’ll know that most models predict an “ECS” or “Equilibrium Climate...
...lowers the top end for ECS or “Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity”, the temperature increase to be expected from any doubling of atmospheric CO2, from 4.5 to 4. It also increases the...
...like trying, say, to farm during the Little Ice Age. As we have repeatedly observed in our just-concluded #ECS In The Real World series, the consensus among sensible economists is...
...Latest climate models suggest it could be worse than we thought” talks about upward revisions in ECS and includes a “High emissions scenario” and, if you drill down far enough...
...C to 3.5 C warmer by the end of the century, resulting in severe impacts on the planet.” Now this number is rubbish, since it relies on ECS (Equilibrium Climate...
...being esoteric, it like ECS is central to the climate debate. Although there’s not a lot of warming over the 20th century to explain, you can use a climate model...
...“most of it” we’d like to know how you evaluate the contributions of “the Sun, volcanic eruptions and internal variability”, whatever the latter means. And what it means for ECS....
...Because evidently instead of the warming effects of CO2 diminishing as concentrations increase as people exploring ECS believe, “tipping points are passed in the climate system, causing processes to be...
...report actually dialed back its projections modestly, reducing the top end of ECS from 4.5 to 4 and also labeling its previously favoured emissions scenario as improbable. “The report also...
...people, the only empire the Aztecs couldn't conquer. The culture still thrives to this day.” Oh really? They still cook, communicate and travel as they did a millennium ago?) Now...
...it? Then what does? Good question. Because the first 180 years of post-Industrial Revolution CO2 and temperature data do not, even though according to the widely accepted notion of ECS,...
...it doesn’t. When sensible economists look at the “problem” of warming, they conclude that if “ECS” is under two, that is, if doubling atmospheric CO2 raises temperature by less than...
...an entire panoply of offerings through which the Aztecs sought to repay their debt to the gods” and “the sacrificial role entailed a great deal of social expectation and a...
...would certainly help alleviate the mental health crisis caused by people running in circles screaming and shouting. As for fixing warming, well, as we keep saying, since ECS is clearly...
...Universities of Utrecht and Bristol.” What, despite all the historical evidence ECS is now between 7 and 14, dramatically upping the ante without doing anything about the range of uncertainty?...
...(aka ECS) is so high that it should be swinging disastrously all over the place faced by minor fluctuations and, certainly, blazing away by about 1940 with the wretched gas...