Dr. Kate Marvel, one of those scientists whose social media activities make it hard to believe she’s a neutral observer, has some bad news for all her Twitter followers. ECS is way higher than the settled science maintains and we’re all going to die. She claims to be “sorry” but the chortling gives it away. As does Bloomberg’s “Top Scientists Just Ruled Out Best-Case Global Warming Scenarios”. Top scientists. As we have noted, the long quest to determine ECS, that is, how much warming to expect from a doubling of atmospheric CO2, has gradually pushed the number downward toward the low end of the conventional 1.5 to 4.5 °C which is good news especially for people who think warmth is bad for life. But such a finding will never do. So now it’s been hurled back up; a group of “25 leading scientists… have narrowed the climate-sensitivity window to between 2.6° Celsius and 3.9° C.” For now.
It’s one paper and as we just pointed out, one paper doesn’t settle “the science” whether we agree with it or not. But it’s remarkable the extent to which some boosters seize on outlying findings of imminent disaster as uncontrovertible almost as though they welcomed it and despite a growing body of evidence to the contrary.
Obviously one issue with the climate scare is that it has to keep getting scarier. Doomsday cults have a ticking clock problem especially once they start pushing back deadlines. But we think this one is fishy. For one thing, increasing ECS doesn’t just require blazing disaster in the future. It requires you to discount other factors going backward. Which is hard to do given that historically there’s just no period on Earth when CO2 seems to have been driving temperature let alone driving it harder than the settled totally reliable shut-up-with-the-dumb-questions science believed. You have to get ever more aggressive with your counter-tweaking with aerosols and whatnot and pretty soon you have a sticky digital mess on your hands.
Never mind. We’re doomed, experts say. Break out the bubbly. No wait. Those bubbles are CO2. Aaaaaaaah.