The Atlantic “Weekly Planet” screeched that “Trump’s Trade War Could Turbocharge Deforestation in the Amazon”. Boo Trump! But just wait until they find out what organizers of the upcoming COP30 gabfest are doing, namely hacking down vast stretches of it to make room for a new four-lane highway to speed passage for an estimated 50,000 delegates. Wait, you say, can it really be a year since the last COP in Azerbaijan? Yes, we remember it well, as we at CDN stood awestruck before the majestic mud volcanoes of Azerbaijan and trembled at the canavarlar while back in Baku homo conferensis was saving the planet from global heating for the 29th straight year? Incredible. And so they’re off to do it again in Belém, Brazil though alas without us. We shall not sample the soy milk from Moscow, the gluten-free cookies from Trendy or what’s left of Brazil’s coffee after organizers clearcut the rainforest to help save it. So what else will we miss?
The pointlessness. Yeah. COP30 seems to be one of those topics where the excitement just never starts. And why should it, given the futility of the previous 29 without which, and it is important to the story, there’d be no need for a 30th. The Allies, for instance, only invaded Normandy once. Had they tried 28 times someone might have commented that it wasn’t working and they needed to rethink their whole approach.
COPs are different. Consider this valid but revealing complaint from Climate Home News that:
“When governments agreed at COP28 to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems, the hope was that this ambition would be reflected in the next round of climate plans. But Russia’s new nationally determined contribution (NDC) has no mention of shifting away from oil and gas. Instead, it references their preferred bit of the COP28 agreement - the paragraph they fought hard for on the last night in Dubai, which ‘recognizes that transitional fuels can play a role in facilitating the energy transition’.”
Of course the problem is that governments did not “agree… to transition away from fossil fuels”. They were never going to. So the yackfest went on and on in circles until desperate, sleep-deprived delegates papered feebly over their intractable disagreements and physical and economic reality so they could finally go home. As will happen at COP30 in even more ritualistic fashion.
Climate Home News tried to get a wave or chant going anyway, with one perky email starting:
“It’s that time of year already and no doubt your COP30 preparations are in full swing. The passports have been dusted off, the diary is filling up with events and meetings – and hopefully, the hotel has been secured.”
Shortly followed by another saying:
“COP30 is almost here, and two issues are set to dominate discussions inside and outside the negotiating rooms: forest protection and climate adaptation.”
The forest protection one is, incredibly, the notion that rich countries will give poor countries umpteen dollars to protect forests. And why not, since demands that rich countries give poor countries umpteen dollars for climate have worked so well at previous COPs.
Indeed, we chuckled at yet another “Give us a tree, give us a dollar, whaddaya got, words” chant from Climate Home News, this one exulting that:
“While it’s still unclear what the main political deliverable will be from COP30, one thing is certain: Brazil wants to kick things off in style with the launch of its brainchild - the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF). The new rainforest fund is due to be showcased on day one of the leaders’ summit on November 6 in the Amazon city of Belém, and Brazil is seeking strong political backing from other countries, whether potential donors or those that could benefit from TFFF payments.”
Gosh. What are the odds that you’ll get a stronger response from “those that could benefit” from the cash than from those who might give it? And did the world really need another globalist acronym?
Still, can you spare a dime?
Oh. You can’t. Blast. Because, CHN added to a chorus of snores:
“With climate impacts worsening, the COP30 Presidency has promised to put adaptation front and centre at the UN climate talks, which are due to agree indicators for the Global Goal on Adaptation. The least-developed countries, meanwhile, are pushing for a new goal to triple adaptation finance even as donor contributions appear to be falling.”
So, prevention having failed so well over 30 years that they’re finally talking adaptation not prevention, it’s time to see how well begging can work over the next 30. So fixed smile pasted onto gritted teeth, they then ask:
“What will it take to bring adaptation into the political mainstream? And how can COP30 deliver real progress for communities already living on the frontlines of the climate crisis?”
And then try to persuade you that you could find out from a webinar whose speakers “include” Debbie Hillier, “policy lead, UNFCCC, and head of Zurich Climate Resilience Alliance for Mercy Corps”, Manjeet Dhakal, “lead advisor to the chair of the Least-Developed Countries (LDC) group in multilateral climate negotiations and director of Climate Analytics South Asia” and Natalie Unterstell, “president of Brazil’s Instituto Talanoa and member of the COP30 Adaptation Council”.
Three of the very people who will not deliver real progress for communities already living on the frontlines of the climate crisis, or for observers already living on the frontlines of narcolepsy, in Belém.
Pardon our cynicism. Or don’t, because Bloomberg Green’s is pretty compelling too:
“Brazil’s powerful agriculture industry plans to show off a green image at the upcoming COP30 summit – despite its massive climate footprint. The highest-emitting sector of the economy, it is also the main driver of deforestation. But at the United Nations-sponsored summit, its message will be that Brazil is a leader in innovative, sustainable agriculture. The farm lobby and its government backers are honing this message in the face of international pressure that threatens the country’s key exports.”
That climate alarmists appear to be against food is one more reason they’re not winning friends and influencing people. Although we do suspect that Brazil’s government isn’t doing a great job stopping the rich and well-connected from committing deforestation, another reason to doubt that hosting a COP will lead to it making dramatic progress on any front except gall and soy latte consumption.
Now pardon our sarcasm, because another pseudo-exited item from Climate Home News gripes:
“Is the scarcity of climate finance for developing countries – a long-heard complaint at UN climate talks – coming home to roost? Many poorer nations have said they cannot achieve a faster green transition without more financial support from the countries that got rich off the back of fossil fuel-burning industries. Angola is a case in point. Its latest national climate plan (NDC) offers a lower emissions-cutting target from business as usual than its previous one. The African oil exporter justified scaling back its aims partly because it has not received enough help with its efforts to date.”
Yeah, and if it had, what difference would it make? Even if Angola were a gleaming sea of solar panels from Luanda to Muié, the diminution in its GHG emissions would change the temperature of the Earth by net zero. Remarkably, it seems to be above the median average for emissions among countries, but at 0.128% of the estimated global total (which always means human total for some reason) it wouldn’t matter if it cut them in half, or doubled them to a full quarter of one percent, or its numbers were fake or at least a wild guess. So nobody cares, and nobody should care.
Which brings us back to our dusty passport. Seriously, we’d like to go and see Brazil. But one reason we didn’t attempt to fund such a venture this year is our doubt that we’d be able to stand the boredom in the hall. The very fact that CHN said “It’s that time of year already” underlines that when you’ve been holding conferences to save the world in the few remaining years for so many decades that it’s just this thing that keeps coming back like, say, Arbor Day (or, in Canada, thrillers like “National Acadian Day”) and you go oh yeah, a tree, back to sleep, shows that there’s literally no chance of anything useful happening there.
Unless the coffee is good.
'It’s that time of year already and no doubt your COP [insert number] preparations are in full swing' - I just wondered if some bright spark has started producing 'Happy COP' cards, with one of those little wheels that you can turn to get the appropriate number? Or 'Happy COP' wrapping paper for your gifts to other attendees? Or perhaps aged and almost forgotten pop stars could start bringing out 'COP Special releases' each year, like they do for Christmas? The possibilities are endless!