As those of you with long memories will recall, Canada’s unusually harsh wildfire season in 2023 was touted as proof of global warming. The quiet American one was ignored, as it might have raised awkward questions about what different planet the U.S. was on. But now Canada is again “burning” or so people keep saying. But at the risk of spoiling the fun with evidence, we feel constrained to point out that as of late July there were nearly 1,000 fires burning which is… perfectly normal. That one particular fire devastated the historic scenic town of Jasper in the imaginatively named “Jasper National Park” is regrettable. But blaming it on “climate change” or “global heating” is exploitative especially given all the warnings to federal authorities that poor forest management in the face of a Mountain Pine Beetle infestation was creating ideal conditions for exactly such a disastrous blaze, which now also loom over the even more iconic Alberta mountain resort town of Banff. And the fact that because Canada is big, rugged, often remote and has a lot of trees, there have been what used to be called “forest fires” here since forever.

For perspective, including on that silly government plan-like object to plant 2 billion trees to change the weather, Canada has over 300 billion trees. As far as anybody’s wild guess knows. We also have the world’s 2^nd-largest country although as noted, because of the incredible number of beautiful lakes, we are 4^th when it comes to land mass. But we are also a nation much of which is far from any urban centre with harsh terrain and few roads compared to China or the U.S., or even Russia much of which is quite flat though they may have us on “remote”. Point being, you’re going to have a lot of trees on fire in such a place given nature red in tooth, claw and flame from lightning strike. (Lightning starts about half the fires, but those ones burn about 85% of the area.)

The Canadian Wildland Fire Information System says that 2023 was way off the charts in area burned. But for number of fires nothing especially odd, with under 7,000. And the overall trend in area burned seems to be declining since 1980 because of climate something.

So what’s the story this year? Nation in flames, film at 11? So they hoped. Back on June 12, a multi-minister press release from Public Safety Canada hollered:

“Latest projections for the 2024 seasonal wildland fire forecast indicate the wildfire risk in Canada is expected to remain high over the coming months, for much of the country, particularly in regions that continue to experience intense drought, including northwestern Alberta, northeastern British Columbia, and southern Northwest Territories. For June, there is potential for above-normal wildfire activity across much of the country, from British Columbia to Labrador, and portions of Atlantic Canada. The forecast for July indicates a potential for above-average conditions to continue.”

Now you don’t have to have an IQ of 160 to grasp that the risk of fire is high in summer in Canada especially if you’re having an intense drought. Or that it has been since before it was Canada. And naturally the Minister of Environment and Climate Change burbled:

“The safety and well-being of all Canadians is the number one priority as we face what could become another difficult wildfire season. We have the backs of Canadians in communities across the country to help them better prepare against the impacts of wildfire and other forms of extreme weather. Just last week, we announced a new half-billion dollar program for municipalities to invest in planning and infrastructure to adapt to climate change and improved the air quality alert system to better inform Canadians of the risk of wildfire smoke.”

Alas, even the state-funded CBC was obliged to concede, on that same June 12, that “Damage done by 2024 wildfire season well below average so far, federal officials say”. Boo hoo, because:

“Canada's wildfire season is off to a slow start, with the number of hectares burned so far this year still below the ten-year average, senior government officials and ministers said in Ottawa Wednesday. Last year at this time, almost three million hectares of forest had been destroyed by wildfires. Canada has lost just 500,000 hectares to fire so far this year.”

But fear. You see:

“Officials warn the improvement over 2023 – the worst wildfire season on record – may not last, as forecasts for July and August appear similar to what Canada saw in those months last year. ‘Unfortunately, this forecasting continues what has become an alarming and all-too-predictable trend,’ Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Jonathan Wilkinson said Wednesday. ‘Climate forecasts indicate that the coming summer months will likely be warmer than normal in most of Canada, with parts of the country seeing less rainfall than normal.’”

Gee, really? Parts of the country seeing less rainfall than normal? And other parts seeing more? Just as always happens, weather being variable? In point of fact Canada’s most populous and second-largest province of “Ontario is pushing towards its wettest summer on record, with many locations already surpassing their average total of seasonal rainfall”. Due presumably to climate change.

Global News tried to make a bonfire of it:

“Hundreds of wildfires across Canada have forced evacuations and torched homes in the wake of record-breaking temperatures in the western part of the country this year. While it is normal for Canada, which has nine per cent of the world’s forests, to experience wildfires during the summer months, this year’s season has come early and the intensity and overall numbers are higher.”

No. Wait. That was 2021. And even they had to admit that from an average of nearly 10,000 fires in the early 1990s, we had declined to around 6,000 by 2018. Something to do with global warming, according to you-know-who:

“Climate change, extreme heat, prolonged drought amid a lack of rainfall, and an increased build-up of communities are major contributing factors, experts say.”

Contributing factors to the decline? Or are you just gibbering?

More to the point, if 2024 is a normal year, or a quiet one, will it have any bearing on what 2023 did or did not prove? Or will they just start yelling that Canada’s 2025 fire season will finally prove we’re all going to die?