Roger Pielke Jr. points out that there have been no tropical cyclones anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere so far this year, and if we get to June 5 without one it will be the quietest start to hurricane season since 1970. And while an unusually quiet start to the hurricane season doesn’t teach us anything about climate change, or even about what the rest of the season will be like, as always it reminds us of the double standard in weather reporting. If there had been an unusually high number of tropical cyclones thus far, or even just a prediction of an unusually active season, the usual suspects would have pounced on it and declared it proof of the climate crisis. Even though, as Pielke Jr. goes on to note, there is a lot of data showing hurricane activity just doesn’t seem to want to follow the climate crisis script.

When it comes to hurricanes, quality matters as well as quantity because big ones are disproportionately destructive. And one way hurricane intensity is measured each year is to add up the Accumulated Cyclonic Energy Index or ACE and show it on a per-hurricane basis. But as Pielke Jr. shows, drawing on records from Colorado State University, the Index of ACE per Hurricane in the North Atlantic back to 1900 shows no overall trend:

As he helpfully adds for those who know what the data should say and lose patience when it doesn’t, if you really want an upward trend, just start your graph at 1970:

For the world as a whole the per-hurricane ACE index only starts at 1980, because a complete cyclone observational record doesn’t go back prior to 1980 outside the North Atlantic. And over that interval globally we see... no trend:

So hurricanes haven’t become stronger. Are they more frequent? Nope:

So, not more frequent, not more destructive and, so far this year, none at all. Some climate crisis. We want our panic back.