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And iffn they don't?

22 Jan 2025 | OP ED Watch

Speaking of narcolepsy, “Media representatives are advised that experts from Environment and Climate Change Canada will hold a bilingual technical briefing on the Department’s Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis’s 2025 global temperature forecast.” Which is of course that “a global mean temperature in the range of 1.35 °C to 1.55 °C above the pre-industrial value, meaning global temperatures in 2025 will remain at least 1.0 °C above pre-industrial levels for the 12th consecutive year.” Interestingly, there seems to be a margin of error of 0.2 percent in what will happen in 2025… but a precision of 0.01 percent in what it was like in 1850. How does that one work? Well see we have this computer…

The announcement of the announcement started “The World Meteorological Organization recently confirmed that 2024 was the hottest year on record.” Which is also utter nonsense, because the “record” goes back into the paleo proxy-based record of, say, the Jurassic, far hotter than today. Or else they mean the record based on current methods of measurement, which only goes back less than half a century, which isn’t so scary. But who expects politicians to be accurate, or journalists to care? Including about what “pre-industrial” means, either with regard to how far back it extends (all the way since the invention of the steam engine) or when they think industrial activity began, or began to be significant. Which surely isn’t 1900 or 1850 though they actually don’t commit.

To its credit, the actual announcement said “Global warming is a reality we all must navigate” rather than the weasely “climate change” which because it could mean anything at all cannot mean anything in particular. But here’s the thing.

Their modeling, which interestingly comes from a URL “climatedata.ca” though it’s not data it’s a forecast, defines “the pre-industrial period” as “1850-1900”, by which point Standard Oil was a giant, the United States was producing some 56 million barrels of oil a year presumably not all hand-crafted, and U.S. Steel was about to be capitalized as the first $1 billion corporation because of its um uh industrial production of steel for the vast and rapidly growing U.S. industrial sector. Also, we Googled “Industrialization in the United States” and got:

“In the United States from the late 18th and 19th centuries, the Industrial Revolution affected the U.S. economy, progressing it from manual labor, farm labor and handicraft work, to a greater degree of industrialization based on wage labor…. The Industrial Revolution occurred in two distinct phases, the First Industrial Revolution occurred during the later part of the 18th century through the first half of the 19th century and the Second Industrial Revolution advanced following the American Civil War…. As Western Europe industrialized in the mid-to-late 1700s, the United States remained agrarian with resource processing, gristmills, and sawmills being the main industrial, non-agrarian output.”

And that’s just from one Wikipedia article. If only journalists and politicians and scientists had access to the interwebs like we do they wouldn’t ignorantly call 1894 “pre-industrial”. Except of course these are mere facts. We want the future and we want it now.

OK. Here you go, though don’t ask us if it will snow next Thursday:

“The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis is forecasting a global mean surface temperature of 1.45 ± 0.10 °C above pre-industrial levels in 2025, slightly cooler than the record high temperature of 1.55 °C seen in 2024 but virtually certain (>99% chance) to be hotter than every year on record prior to 2023.”

Waaaaah! Not the hottest year ever. But hotly hot. And we’re not being snide about weather. At least not very, because the press release the other press release announced says:

“The annual global mean temperature forecast is produced by the Government of Canada using the Canadian Seasonal to Inter-Annual Prediction System version 3. This system is designed to forecast seasonal climate conditions up to a year in advance. Results are currently updated monthly at weather.gc.ca to provide valuable insights into temperature, precipitation, and other key climate variables. Starting later in 2025, the Government of Canada will also begin publishing seasonal and decadal forecasts on ClimateData.ca.”

So they are offering “seasonal climate conditions up to a year in advance”. Or at least their system is designed to do so. And weather.gc.ca really does offer hourly and 7-day forecasts, plus alerts and more. It even offers past weather, though the press release quotes our Minister of Raging Climate Communism Steven Guilbeault that: “Canadian communities and businesses are experiencing climate change impacts with greater intensity and frequency” so evidently he didn’t look it up.

Still, we’ll keep an eye on it, while they try to figure out why 2025 is going to have been less hotly hot than 2024. Starting with their prediction that most of Canada will be “above normal” for January through March 2025 which we’re not seeing yet in Ottawa:

They say:

“Canada’s first annual global mean temperature forecast marks a significant milestone in the Government’s ability to provide important climate insights on a global scale, building on extensive expertise in climate modelling and analysis. This work supports planning in areas such as agriculture, disaster preparedness, water management, and climate adaptation.”

But only if they get it right.

3 comments on “And iffn they don't?”

  1. Nicolov and Zeller have compared data from NASA’s CERES satellite that measures variations in cloud cover vs a number of temperature data sets over
    the last 20 years. It an excellent fit. The albedo has been reducing (less clouds) allowing more short wavelengh radiation from the sun to warm the surface.

  2. In pseudo-science numbers and data are manipulated to arrive at desired outcomes, in real science numbers and data are analyzed to enlighten us with truths....or at least facts!

  3. Well,so far based on that map,EnviroCan is batting zero!At least in So. Ontario.It freezing,well below seasonal almost everywhere!How do you estimate a mean temperature to a hundreds of a degree based on 1850 as a starting point?In 1850 they'd be lucky to get within one degree of the actual temperature.So we don't with accuracy what the mean temperature was then.This is just more smoke and mirrors form EnvirAlarmist Canada.

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