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#CheerfulCharts #11: Long-term hurricane intensity in Florida

16 Oct 2024 | Science Notes

Well maybe not cheerful, if you were hoping for evidence Atlantic cyclones were getting less intense over time. But at least they’re not getting worse. This week’s chart comes from Dr. Roy Spencer of UAH satellite data fame, who gathered up data from 1900 to 2024 on the intensity of Atlantic storms when they make landfall in Florida. The all-time record was set in 1935, followed by 1992 and 2018. So, for the record, if you live in Florida, be aware that during the season they call “hurricane season”, you might encounter hurricanes and it’s not a new phenomenon, it has ever been thus.

The last couple of decades do stand out for an increase in intensity compared to the long lull from the 1950s to the 1980s. So if people only look at the last half century they will think there is an upward trend. But go back farther and it starts to look more like a cycle, almost as if the climate were naturally variable. Which it is, along with being naturally capable of throwing bad storms our way.

To conclude on a genuinely cheery note, nowadays we are much better equipped to handle such disasters, among other things because we have so many cars available to evacuate landfall regions and emergency vehicles to get in there afterwards, thanks to the same fossil fuels that haven’t apparently increased hurricane intensity.

2 comments on “#CheerfulCharts #11: Long-term hurricane intensity in Florida”

  1. That does seem to be the biggest problem. Not looking far enough into the past. Whole gulf coast city's were wiped off the face of the earth back between 1919 and 1942.
    It's also curious that old photos of gulf coast homes, they are on pylons of 5 to 12 feet tall. Photos of some of the same homes, they enclosed those same pylons to have a lower floor, that of course well now get flooded in a storm surge. Even as late as the 60's and 70's, many homes were built on pylons. Then I guess people and contractors got stupid.

  2. Tom Fitzpatrick, The increase building is due to the taxpayer subsidized flood insurance. As with most government solutions, creates a bigger problem.

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