Scientific American can barely conceal its relief that disaster looms, emailing that “Weeks of eerie quiet in the Atlantic Ocean basin are over: Tropical Storm Francine in the Gulf of Mexico is expected to hit Louisiana as a hurricane tomorrow.” In the upside-down world of climate alarmism, a lack of devastating storms is “eerie” rather than, oh, say, pleasant. In the story to which they linked they positively exulted in the damage to come: “Forecasters are warning of a life-threatening storm surge and up to a foot of rain in some spots.” Yay! Life-threatening storm surge. Finally. Where have you been all summer?
Mind you “Tropical Storm” is a bit of a letdown though a relieved editor’s note explained that:
“Francine became a hurricane at 8 P.M. EDT on September 10. Forecasts currently still call for the storm to strengthen but to remain just shy of Category 2 status.”
As in the weakest kind of windstorm that gets called a hurricane. (Ultimately it staggered over the line to a Category 2 but only just.) And not a moment too soon. See, climate change is causing a surge in hurricanes even if it’s not:
“Forecasters aren’t sure what has kept a lid on storm formation, especially given that ocean waters – the fuel for hurricanes – have been exceptionally warm. It could be some combination of Saharan dust that is blowing off the western coast of Africa – and keeping the atmosphere too dry for moisture-loving tropical systems – and a shift in a wind pattern over the continent that is leading to fewer of the atmospheric disturbances that often act as hurricane seeds. Whatever caused the lull, it’s over for now.”
Not to seem picky. But the essence of science is to test theories against evidence. So if the theory is that warm ocean waters are “the fuel for hurricanes” and you don’t get a bunch of them, something’s wrong with the theory.
As Thomas Kuhn wrote in his pathbreaking The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, it is true that a theory can be patched up at least for a while with adjustments and tweaks, like that one about Saharan dust that nobody mentioned in the heady spring days of predicting a record Atlantic hurricane season thanks to warmer ocean waters. But at some point the scientists-aren’t-sure-but-it-must-be-something angle starts to feel contrived. Especially if your evidence that the lull is semi-over consists of one disappointingly weak storm, even if Francine did then huff and puff and briefly reach Category Two, surprising forecasters with more settled science.
Disappointing? Not to us. We don’t live in Louisiana but we would be very happy if those who do were not hit by any hurricanes. However the alarmists need this disaster or they’ll have some explaining to do.
As a lifelong US Gulf Coast resident it seems there is a link between the bad science driving the useless forecasts and a ghoulish delight in predicting deadly outcomes.
I was just thinking only this morning that the weather gods had been very kind to us , We have nothing to report . It's been a cool and rather unremarkable summer here in Ireland. Today we are having a bit of late summer sun which is most welcome as the sun has stayed hidden for most of our summer ( not that unusual here I'm afraid) .
The weather people must be cock a hoop with reports of flooding in central Europe. At last a disaster that is weather related.
This global warming emergency has steadfastly refused to have made it's presence felt.
Can we support an array of very large fans (like wind turbines) to blow that Saharin dust across the south Atlantic every year? Seems like that would be a good investment by FEMA.
Here in Ottawa we are having a rather warm September, with daytime highs not too dissimilar to normal midsummer highs. Haven't experienced anything like this for, oh, several years at least. According to most of my left-leaning acquaintances this is an obvious sign of climate change. Of course, if we were having an unusually cool September, that would merely be weather, not climate.
There was a joke(or rumour) during USO overseas tours,that the performers never met a war they didn't like.Likewise for the alarmists like UnScientific UnAmerican and their ilk regarding severe weather.They can't wait for disasters to strike,to "prove" that there are right.
I watched Francine develop on Nullschool, it didn't strike me as something that would endanger human life, it lacked power and wind speed. It may have come ashore as a Cat2 but it was a nothing burger in the news cycle. I never saw any mention of it after the flurry of reports as it was developing.
It's 19 September and for the last three days the news and weather cycle is all about the models that are predicting the formation of a hurricane in the NW Carabeaban/SW Gulf that is sure to strike the Gulf Coast or Floridia a full week or more away. There is no system and none currently in the make, just modeling. Prognosticators and reporters are simply giddy with the possibilities.