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Cold water on warming hype

01 Jul 2020 | News Roundup

Like a great many governments, that of India has signed onto the Paris Agreement without showing the slightest inclination to meet its targets or willingness to break a sweat in pursuit of them. But one reason they’re not sweating so much in New Delhi, according to Vijay Jayaraj, is that India doesn’t seem to have warmed much at all since the 1950s. At any rate, so says a new report from its Ministry of Earth Science.

Of course you should not believe everything you read online about climate, or anything else. Nor should you believe everything governments say, online or elsewhere, about climate or anything else. And the Indian government (like the Chinese) is a big emitter of GHGs and going full steam ahead on coal power to alleviate widespread poverty in their country and the misery it brings. So it has a vested interest in downplaying the role of man-made GHGs in catastrophic warming, just as Canada’s government has a vested interest in exaggerating it as part of an exercise in virtue-signaling.

That said, let’s look at the facts, especially since as we have noted, there does seem to be gathering awareness of and interest in cooling trends in various parts of the world. According to this Indian government report, based on some impressive data sources from the famous (and in Climategate infamous) CRU at the University of East Anglia and India’s own Meteorological Department, say that India was cooler between 2010 and 2015 than in the 1950s.

How can it be? Well, there was significant cooling from about 1950 to 1970, something the CO2 zealots explain away by invoking aerosols (not due to observations, but because if you posit X amount of aerosols with Y cooling effect per unit, the XY gives you what you need to match model outputs to 20th-century data while still creating ear-splitting predictions of warming for the 21st). But in India at least, the warming that followed did not undo all that cooling, let alone surge past 1951 levels. And awkwardly, that warming appears to have stopped in 2009 despite record CO2 levels blah blah blah.

There’s obviously lots more in this report including a finding that Sikkim cooled from the 1960s on. And if you’re thinking who cares or Sikkim is small and possibly an outlier or some variant of that idea, Vijay Jayaraj points out that it’s a Himalayan state and one significant alarmist trope is that the Himalayas are warming faster than the average.

For ourselves, we point out that Sikkim may be a small part of India, but India is a big country. Indeed, it takes up most of a subcontinent. So if it’s really true that it’s not warming at all, let alone warming fast, it’s a significant challenge to the dominant narrative. Significant enough, surely, to warrant more research.

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