The National Observer warns that some York University professor has warned in Limnology and Oceanography that children won’t know what ice is. And then we will all be poor and sad and our Shinto ceremonies just won’t be what they once were. If you didn’t see the last bit coming, read on. But you need to remind yourself that all effects of climate change are bad and it affects everything. Especially everything whose demise makes for good PR.

The headline on the piece ought to have disqualified it for publication right away. “As the climate crisis melts our ice, our way of life could change in unexpected ways”. Could? In unexpected ways? Things we’re not expecting will happen unless they don’t is not a news story. It’s not even a horoscope.

Not to worry. The story plunges through the thinning ice into the coming hot water, saying “In Japan, a once-annual Shinto ceremony that revolved around the freezing of a lake is no longer possible most years. In Minnesota, ice fishing competitions that feed local economies are expected to get cancelled more often as the climate crisis accelerates. And in Canada, ice roads that serve as a lifeline for isolated Indigenous communities in the North are opening weeks later than they once did.”

It’s not even clear that these are trends. We do think the world has warmed since the 1970s, having cooled from around 1940 after warming previously. But we also know the Arctic north-west passage was navigable in a small boat in the 1940s and also around the turn of the 20^th century, and lately the issue for agriculture in the Canadian west has been late springs and early falls not the reverse. And if they are trends, it is still very likely that they represent a continuation of the natural warming that began in the 19^th century with the end of the Little Ice Age and sent the glaciers in Glacier Bay National Park into precipitous retreat when Victoria reigned.

It gets worse. The study of the ruined Shinto event says local priests have been documenting ice cover on Lake Suwa since 1443, specifically “an ice ridge that legend says is formed by the footsteps of one god crossing the lake to visit another…. For the first 250 years of record-keeping, there were only three years where Lake Suwa didn’t freeze. But since 1989, the lake has failed to freeze 21 times.” Gotcha.

Or not. Between the first 250 years, which only take us from 1443 to 1693, and “since 1989” there’s another 296 years. What happened between 1693 and 1989? Because if the lake stopped freezing around the time the Thames did you’re cherry-blossom-picking data to hide a long natural trend. And you are; the Japan Times notes that “Between the end of World War II and 1988, the ice ridge failed to form 13 times.” So unless you say man-made warming started in 1945 you’re busted. Which you are anyway because a much earlier study, from 1954, said “The years in the last 2 1/2 centuries have been characterized by warmer winter (i. e. later freezing)…” And if it’s a long natural trend surely we should relax.

Oh no. Do not relax. They want you to feel the panic they feel. “As our planet warms, the loss of freshwater ice in winter threatens to fundamentally alter our way of life, endangering spiritual practices, cultural traditions and livelihoods, found a study published earlier this year.” It seems Minnesota could lose $1 million a year from ice fishing. As against which there will, of course, be no gains at all from, say, better crop-growing conditions, because climate change never brings anything good. And in case that seems ridiculously small, “many human uses related to lake and river ice, such as a loss of sense of place, are more difficult to evaluate empirically and to assign a dollar value.”

Dang. There goes our sense of place. “Life in Canada and abroad is intertwined with ice. But the loss of winter could alter our traditions and livelihoods, a new study has found. Skating on the Rideau Canal may become rare. And festivals like the Quebec City Winter Carnival may change, too, as the cold months become warmer. The study author claimed tobogganing “was a big part of (my generation’s) childhood, and it's something that isn't as common anymore.” Unless it still is.