It is hard to know who would be more infuriated to think he was one of them, the President and his supporters or the greens. But it is nevertheless true that Donald Trump has achieved what climate alarmists could not. As Roger Pielke Jr. observed under the heading “Trump’s Carbon Tax: The president meets the ‘Iron Law’” in late September, “President Donald Trump has done something that decades of climate advocacy and international conferences have never achieved. Global carbon dioxide emissions look set to fall in 2026 by more than in any year since the pandemic” because of the Iran war and price spike. Indeed, in a delicious piece of irony, Trump has brought about a massive increase in conventional energy prices in the U.S. that the alarmists long dreamed of in vain. And in an even more delicious irony, neither side is remotely happy with the result, let alone the cause. As for the irony of the “Iron Law”, read on.
As Heatmap observed on September 15, “Grain Trains Pained by Diesel Strain”. And we add plain to anyone with a brain. Which might exclude them, as they added:
“The average fuel surcharge for grain shipments on U.S. railways more than doubled over the past year, in the latest sign of how soaring energy prices will spur inflation of food costs.”
Riiiight. And you’ve been hoping to limit supplies of and raise prices of diesel for years expecting… what? As that piece continued:
“House Democrats are out with their first new climate agenda since the Green New Deal’s glory days of 2020. This time, however, it’s more of what the top Democrat behind the proposal called ‘a workable plan for long term economic and job growth’ than an emissions-cutting blitz.”
Gosh. Wonder why? Could it be that contrary to their expectations, but in line with predictions from sensible people, raising the cost of energy would make people poorer not richer? Including Axios tugging at the heartstrings with:
“The Iran war is sending diesel costs higher as many school districts are already grappling with bus driver shortages, Axios’ Josephine Walker reports. That’s a double whammy leading to missed breakfasts, late classes and fewer school activities. The big picture: Districts are consolidating routes and cutting trips to save money and manage shortages.”
OK. But what did you think would happen if carbon taxes, offsets and the whole regulatory and taxing panoply were brought into force precisely to force people to burn less diesel? D’oh. As the Wall Street Journal wrote “Soaring diesel prices driven by the U.S. conflict with Iran are rippling through a consumer economy that runs on fuel.” But at least they weren’t surprised by the connections. A lot of people apparently were, having ignored the old warning to be careful what you wish for.
We observed above that Trump had managed what the alarmists could not, to increase the cost of hydrocarbon fuel dramatically. Though as Breitbart Business Digest rightly observes, diesel prices while painfully high are not at a record level once you adjust for inflation. But Trump’s fervent green opponents had already managed, though they deny it, to increase overall fuel costs by forcing the substitution of expensive alternatives for affordable oil, gas and yes coal. And it turns out that it was bad not good too.
Thus, for instance, the Washington Times writes that “Massachusetts governor shifts green-energy stance to face voters stuck with big gas, electric bills”. And while it is easy to criticize politicians for changing their positions, and for how they do it, including denying the obvious with profound and committed insincerity, the key fact is that Gov. Maura Healey:
“facing a rising fury about the high cost of heat and electricity as she runs for a second term, took an extraordinary step. She asked the Department of Energy to expedite approval of a natural gas pipeline expansion project in the state. The move marked a dramatic pivot from the governor’s staunch opposition to increasing the use of fossil fuels in the state’s energy mix. Just a few years ago, Ms. Healey wagged her finger and proudly boasted of her role in blocking two natural gas pipeline projects while serving as the state’s attorney general. That move, which contributed to residents paying much higher prices for natural gas imported from overseas, has become a top campaign talking point for her Republican opponent, former medical-device executive Mike Minogue.”
As the Wall Street Journal put it: “Add Gov. Healey to the list of Democrats mugged by energy reality.”
Oh well. If disgruntled unmugged progressives can no longer vote for Ms. Healey, they can turn to President Trump, who is still denying that he had anything important to do with rising diesel costs, saying their record levels were “mostly caused by the Russia/Ukraine war, not Iran” and would now come down because he had made an art of the deal where Russia and Ukraine would not attack one another’s “energy targets” though neither they nor anyone else seems aware of it except Mark Carney in one of his obsequious moods.
Then Trump made some sort of unilateral and bizarre deal with Russia to cement his reputation as unscrupulous as well as short-sighted. Not that Europeans were not desperately buying all the Russian LNG they could while slagging Trump and standing with Ukraine rhetorically (“On their way into their meeting, the EU’s foreign ministers remained united in their insistence that increasing pressure on Moscow was the only way forward”), thus cementing their reputation as unscrupulous as well as hypocritical and short-sighted. And to think our enemies consider the West decadent, self-indulgent and weak-willed.
Actually one person who is sort of enjoying the irony is Robinson Meyer over at Heatmap, a frequent target of our critiques. On Sept. 17, he wrote:
“Back in March of last year, I coined the phrase ‘Degrowth Donald’ to describe President Donald Trump’s accidental environmental impact. Trump might say that climate change was a ‘hoax’ or ‘scam,’ I said. But when you looked at his actions, a different set of beliefs emerged. He imposed a 10% tax on Canadian oil – a far more effective deterrent on consuming Albertan crude than a decade of protests against Keystone XL. He taxed foreign car imports and levied new tariffs on single-family-home building materials. You could say he had, I don’t know, rhubarb politics – a MAGA red stalk erupting in big green leaves. Of course, Trump’s actual environmental politics are far more complicated. He has declared war on wind energy and gutted greenhouse gas rules.”
Normally conservatives are at least somewhat wary of the “Law of unintended consequences” because they doubt human omnipotence and understand incentives. But Donald Trump is not a normal conservative, to put it mildly. And normal conservatives still understand that what really matters is not what some politician said would result from their actions, or thought would, or hoped would. It is what was likely to result and what did.
Meanwhile Trump also had the pseudo-inspiration to allow the “tax-free dyed diesel that is normally reserved for off-road use in vehicles such as combines and tractors” to be used for trucks and for farmers on roads, on the theory that while it’s bad to have tax-free diesel it’s also good if the government panics.
Of course Scientific Communism, unaware that everyone has decided high fuel costs are bad, weighed in against deregulation of anything, emailing on Sept. 29 that:
“The Trump administration announced plans to roll back fuel regulations, lowering the number of miles per gallon cars must achieve. It could be a disaster for the environment, experts say. | 2 min read”
And two minutes well-wasted, despite the experts who say, since if prices are high people will change their behaviour to reduce use. Duh. (Also, the Biden restrictions were a subdolous attempt to force people to buy EVs not a superfluous attempt to make ICE cars more efficient.) Even Bloomberg Green seems to get it, hailing people buying more minivans and fewer SUVs as fuel prices rise. But of course it’s because most activists don’t understand this basic point that they wanted higher prices and thought they wouldn’t hurt. Although contradictorily they wanted them to cause people to be able to afford less fuel. Apparently they thought we didn’t need fuel. Which brings us back to Roger Pielke Jr.
As he further observes in the piece we started with, Trump had run into what he called “the iron law of climate policy” a decade and a half ago:
“The iron law of climate policy is immutable. It means that substantially increasing the costs of energy, which supports every aspect of modern life, is off the table as a policy option for achieving deep decarbonization. That goes for formal pricing instruments as well as so-called ‘shadow’ instruments such as efforts to limit supply of energy resources in hopes of driving up prices.”
Alas, he underestimated the capacity of politicians to do disastrously dumb stuff by mistake, and of advocates to advocate it in culpable ignorance of the probable or certain effects. So the fact that it wasn’t a rational policy option had little bearing on whether it would be proposed anyway, happen anyway, and leave its proponents dismayed by its disastrous results. And as Doomberg pointed out, the impact is disastrous, including contributing to recent menacing unrest in France.
How did so many people not know that making life unaffordable would prove upsetting, and rightly so? And what else don’t they know?
Voters have turfed pols who caused increased energy prices before.Though usually it's the pols who did it deliberately.One good change that the Trump Admin. made recently was allowing US to eliminate the "Auto-stop" feature on new cars.This feature made car engines stop whenever the car came to a complete stop.Then when the brake is released,the engine starts again.Annoying,infuriating,and it's hard on your starter to be doing this frequently.This is why people who deliver fast food and the like often do not shut their vehicle off when making their deliveries(I asked,that's why I know).Also,my car has auto-stop.I defeat the feature by slipping gear shift from Drive into L6.The RPM's are the same as the tranny changes gears,hence no excessive wear on your transmission.