Of all the threats caused by climate change, one of the scariest or so we’re told is the soaring numbers of people who will die during scorching heatwaves. Now, to be clear, heatwaves are unpleasant and do raise the risk of people dying, especially the elderly and those without the physical or economic ability to protect themselves from the heat. But in general people aren’t dumb and they look for ways to make their lives safer and more pleasant, including by installing air conditioning and making changes to their homes like painting the roof white, planting shade trees and closing the curtains. But does it help? Yes, according to a new study by a group of scientists in Poland. According to their analysis of data from across Europe, on average every 17.9 years Europeans adjust enough to negate the impact of 1C warming. Since global warming for a hundred years has only added about 2C that finding means that over four decades European adaptation outpaced climate change. Government policy not only didn’t help, if anything it got in the way. If only drawing the curtains kept bureaucrats and politicians out.
The article authors make it clear that studies of heatwave mortality fail to take proper account of adaptation.
“Studies on vulnerability to both low and high temperatures reveal regional differences, suggesting that populations are adapted to their local climates. However, even highly reputable climate change impact studies have traditionally assumed that these relationships will remain constant despite climate change... While some recent studies have started to explore adaptation scenarios, such considerations have not been a central focus in most projections. Notably, non-adaptation projections are difficult to reconcile with other studies – sometimes even coauthored by the same researchers – that assess the impact of heatwaves over recent decades. These works consistently find declining vulnerability and, in some cases, even a reduction in overall mortality despite a warming climate.”
They also point out that people adapt routinely to big changes in temperature including when they retire to, um, warmer locations.
“In many cases, adaptation occurs so naturally that it is taken for granted. Studies on retirement migrations show little consideration for the supposed challenge of adapting to a warmer climate, despite retirees overwhelmingly choosing warmer regions for relocation.”
In their new study the authors gathered data on local temperatures and weekly mortality rates in 94 EU regions from 2020 to 2022, which they paired with data on local income. They looked specifically at the number of days with temperatures above 21C and related those counts to higher levels of mortality. They found that more days above 21C are, indeed, associated with more local deaths. But they also found that the effect was offset by a declining trend over time and a negative correlation with income. In other words the passage of time and the growth in income lead to lower death rates. Which means people adapt to warming. The effect was strong enough that the passage of 17.9 years, or income growth of just under $20,000 euros, was enough to offset 1 degree C of warming.
The only catch is that people’s ability to afford air conditioning doesn’t seem to be a big priority for EU governments. The authors point out that adaptation efforts are largely misplaced:
“Recent landmark reports emphasize the importance of green spaces and public health interventions (Daalen et al. 2022, European Environment Agency 2024), while viewing air conditioning with worrisome ambivalence. While they acknowledge that wealthier households are less vulnerable to heatwaves and the need to address energy poverty, the emphasis lies on overhauling the energy infrastructure, which is a costly and potentially conflicting goal.”
No kidding. Shutting down reliable fossil energy and building windmills costs a lot and uses up money that would be better spent on strategies that work. Worse, increased penetration of renewables increases stress on the grid and makes it more susceptible to power failures, in addition to raising electricity prices. This undesirable outcome of ill-considered policies impedes adaptation, without doing anything to reduce the threat of heat waves.
The bottom line is people are clever and can adapt to changing circumstances, including warmer weather, as long as governments don’t get in the way by assuming they’re stupid and making the necessary adaptations costlier while wasting money on strategies that don’t do any good. Since governments so often take precisely that approach, it’s a wonder the authors found as much evidence of adaptation as they did.
Back in the UK only 5% of homes have built-in air conditioning and, yes, with a temperate climate we perhaps do not need it as much as warmer countries. However, strict net zero rules now mean that aircon is effectively banned in the UK. Planning laws force new-build developers to demonstrate that “all practicable passive means of removing excess heat have been used first” before installing AC. For the most part, this means new-builds have tiny prison-style windows that let in little sunlight and are not much help when the air outside is already warm. Air-to-air heat pumps can heat homes in winter and cool them in summer but do not qualify for a £7,500 grant available for other heat pumps because the green alarmists are worried about energy consumption in the brave new world they are cfreating.