Dunkelflaute is a lovely word that conjures up memes regarding why Germans don’t play Scrabble. But there’s nothing geheimnisvoll about it. It means “a period when it’s dark and windless”. And if you thought they called it “Nacht”, at least sometimes, we say nicht. A Dunkelflaute is longer and drearier, especially if you somehow decided that wind and solar power could replace oil, gas and nuclear and launched an Energiewende that might get you two triple word scores at once but will not get you a reliable energy grid. And so the mystery here is: Why didn’t they realize that having this lovely word already in their vocabulary was a tipoff that they had this rather less lovely weather on a regular basis?

In fact when we Googled it, partly to try to determine whether it was masculine, feminine or neuter, part of the meme about why people don’t study German, the top hits other than Wikipedia were all from advocates for alternative energy admitting that yes, when it’s cold and dark there can be issues and it often is. Indeed the Wikipedia entry itself started:

“In the renewable energy sector, a dunkelflaute (German: [ˈdʊŋkəlˌflaʊtə] ⓘ, lit. ’dark doldrums’ or ‘dark wind lull’, plural dunkelflauten) is a period of time in which little or no energy can be generated with wind and solar power, because there is neither wind nor sunlight. In meteorology, this is known as anticyclonic gloom.”

Yeah. We’ll bet it is. And BTW the autotranslate claims would be “antizyklonische Dunkelheit” in German. But we digress.

The point is, any protracted period where you can’t generate energy from alternatives because it’s as dark and still as, say, the inside of a tomb is known as “advocacy gloom” to those claiming it would all be marvellous, and “economic gloom” to those facing high prices and intermittent energy as they huddle together for warmth in the shadow of a shuttered factory, a phenomenon generally followed by political panic.

Still, when in doubt, pfeife past the Friedhof. Thus something called “Next” or “next-kraftwerke“ (slogan: “The Power of Many”) concedes that:

“The term ‘Dunkelflaute’ (Eng.: dark doldrum) describes the simultaneous occurrence of darkness and a lull in wind activity. It is a combination of the German words ‘dunkel’, which means dark, and ‘Flaute’, which means lull. This weather phenomenon typically arises in winter, partly due to shorter daylight hours and the correspondingly lower number of sunshine hours. As a result, solar and wind energy yields are reduced, while electricity demand is seasonally high. A ‘Dunkelflaute’ can last for several days. When low temperatures, which typically increase electricity demand, coincide with darkness and a lull in wind activity, the term ‘cold Dunkelflaute’ is used.”

Ach nein. But ja. And of course they then try to blame big oil or some other plot… but don’t even convince themselves:

“In the dark and foggy months of winter, the media traditionally publish articles and reports on the Dunkelflaute. It is clear that these articles are not always based on verifiable energy facts but are also influenced by lobbying efforts, just as it is undeniable that the Dunkelflaute is a real phenomenon.”

Yup. And a bad one:

“It is widely acknowledged that the supply gap caused by the Dunkelflaute presents a significant challenge for the power grid and that renewable energies alone cannot yet fully address it.”

So the power of few, huh? Still, kein Problem. See:

“effective concepts already exist to protect against weather-related gaps in the power supply without relying on conventional power generators.”

The first being “Pumped Storage Power Plants” or Pumpspeicherkraftwerke. Again, multiply your word score by nine, and divide your credibility score by a similar amount, as it’s a fictional solution to a real Problem.

As is gridX doing the same admission that it’s a big problem before brushing it aside with:

“Instead of relying on conventional power plants, there are also alternative plants that are powered by renewable resources: Pumped storage power plants already absorb peak loads during regular operation. By pumping water to be stored when there is surplus power and releasing it to generate power in times of need, they are particularly important for abrupt balancing during an impending dunkelflaute.”

Anyone care to calculate the thermodynamics of converting sunlight into electricity into potential energy in water in a tower then back down? Better stick with sunbeams from cucumbers… at least in the summer months.

Sunsave Energy, which is a company not a media outlet, chirps “Battery storage and alternative renewables can help during these events”. Yeah. Just not very much, hence all the concern. As Reuters reported last February:

“Wind facilities have generated more than a third of Germany’s monthly electricity output since October - a record long stretch - aiding the country’s drive to cut use of fossil fuels in the power sector and reduce national emissions. But electricity firms are bracing for an annual drop in wind speeds that has historically slashed wind output in spring and summer from the peak generation levels seen during winter.”

An annual drop. Slashed. In spring and summer. Put that in your pumped storage tower and praise it.

Thus our favourite bit of whistling past the graveyard here came from Clean Energy Wire, whose slogan “Journalism for the energy transition” leaves no room for doubt as to their balanced dispassionate assessment:

“Several days of little sunshine and wind have pushed down renewable electricity production in Germany in early November, causing an increase of fossil fuel use and high power prices. However, energy analysts said such conditions are common at this time of the year and do not pose a risk of blackouts to the country’s power system. Germany is still debating how to fund H2-ready gas power plants which, alongside European power imports, should help secure electricity supply during these dark doldrum periods.”

Should. Just didn’t.

Thus on a cold dark day just after the winter solstice, the New York Times grimmed in that:

“Europe is watching the skies for a gremlin that can roil its energy markets and stoke political tensions between neighboring countries. This weather phenomenon, known as the Dunkelflaute, has become a source of frustration to government ministers and a potential pitfall on their journey to cleaner energy. A German term that translates to “dark doldrums,” Dunkelflaute refers to a spate of calm days when dense clouds descend over northern Europe. This weather pattern may occur two to 10 times a year, usually in the fall and winter, and lasts 24 hours or longer. In the past, these spells of murky quiet would have made little difference to energy markets in Europe. But in recent years, as countries like Germany and Britain have spent billions to tackle climate change by shifting to cleaner sources of energy, the Dunkelflaute has gained notoriety.”

Quite. Except it’s not a “gremlin”, it’s a predictable, frequent weather pattern that the fools who “spent billions to tackle climate change” evidently failed to see coming, meaning they should get the notoriety. Especially as the Times piece immediately adds:

“A generation ago, Europe relied on steady, predictable flows of energy from nuclear and fossil fuel plants. Now, much of the region’s power comes from solar arrays and wind farms, whose output varies with the whims of the weather.”

And who could possibly have foreseen that problem? And the astounding spikes in energy prices in response that the piece catalogues? Including that:

“Germany has suffered a particularly gloomy fall and winter this year, with electricity production down more than 5 percent compared with the same time the previous year. A Dunkelflaute in mid-December caused electricity prices to jump to 14 times their average.”

Autsch. (Yes, that really is “Ouch” in German, as Ja really is “Yeah” and Eis is “ice” and Kalt is “cold” and “Winter” is winter and they still get it and it still hurts.)

Sustainability Magazine concedes gloomily that:

“The intermittent nature of renewables necessitates a strong backup in the form of gas-fired power plants to maintain a stable energy supply. Dunkelflaute events, when aligned with colder climates, amplify the need for gas due to escalated heating demands.”

So if you need gas plants anyway, are you meant to build two separate power grids, one a show horse and one a work horse? They don’t say. But they also don’t pretend there’s no power. Instead they close the cold dark door on the subject with a senior executive at a major German transmission system outfit who says:

“Dunkelflaute is the worst case scenario for a renewables-based power system. There will be times when not enough wind and solar power is available.”

Yeah. An annual, long-lasting worst case scenario. No wonder it casts gloom.

Oh well. The next step will be to say climate change is making it worse, so the problem will fix itself provided we exacerbate it.