This week we start a new series to help CDN readers track down the sorts of useful data series that regularly come up when debating these issues. We start with NOAA’s Climate at a Glance Time Series window. Now the first thing we need to say is that it relies heavily on the surface thermometer record, which is subject to a lot of dodgy kluging and adjusting to make the past colder and the present warmer. But even with their thumb on the scale, the temperature data still comes out with some interesting patterns that might surprise your neighbourhood alarmist.

For instance, if you select Average Temperature on a 1-month time scale for all months from 1895 to 2024 in the United States, here is what you get:

Not exactly panic-inducing, is it? Note the black line is not a trend line, it’s the 1901-2000 average. The web site for some reason doesn’t allow us the option of adding a trend line for this graph. So we downloaded the data and drew it ourselves, and the result was… 0.18 degrees F per decade, or about one degree C per century. And another thing immediately clear from this chart is that the swings in average temperature within a year are far larger than any “climate change” that has happened over the 130 year span shown in the graph.

What’s more, the main change that has happened is that since the late 1970s the coldest months are a bit less cold, whereas the hottest months are about the same as they’ve always been. Here is what July maximum temperatures look like (with the black line being again not a trend but the average from 1901-2000):

Interestingly, the biggest variability and the fastest upward trend both came early in the record. So was there a dramatic human influence on climate between 1895 and 1935 that then tapered off? Awkward. Especially since, once again, this chart is the result after they’ve monkeyed with the data to make the present look hotter than the hottest thing ever. Imagine if they’d just used the actual thermometer readings.

There is also a handy data table below the graph and you can click on one of the arrows by the word Rank to sort the table by temperature. So we did, and here are the top 10 warmest monthly averages in the record:

The pattern is obvious.... not. Unless you count the 1930s holding three of the top nine spots, as against only one appearance for the supposedly blazing 2020s or 2010s, and sixth going to a year well over a century ago.

If we expanded the list to the top 12 then poor old July 2024 would stagger across the tape. But not even the Olympics, where they applaud second place, gives a medal for 12th.

So next time you find yourself talking to one of your American alarmist friends who’s convinced climate change is making the US uninhabitable, show them how to #lookitup.