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Hurricanes, then and now

09 Oct 2024 | Science Notes

“Then” in this case meaning over the interval from 850 to 2000. And it turns out there were hurricanes back then, and even farther back, before we had climate. And not only that, but the big swings in hurricane numbers weren’t driven by greenhouse gases or any other external cause. They were driven by all the ultra-complex internal variability of our ultra-complex climate system. Which we learned by talking to retired climatologist Judith Curry, and also by reading a study from early in 2024 by a team of 11 scientists who concluded that recent hurricane levels are entirely within the range of long-term natural variability. So anyone who claims taxes or any other human contrivance can prevent hurricanes, or cause them, needs to look back, way back.

The reconstruction was formed by gathering up sediment layer data from shoreline locations in the Caribbean and up the US eastern seaboard and picking out the indicators of Atlantic hurricanes making landfall. After overlaying the modern record the result was as follows:

There are many remarkable features of this picture. First, there appears to be higher hurricane counts during the... er, what should we call this, uh... Medieval Warm Period. And indeed the authors themselves even say:

“We observe three centuries of elevated hurricane frequency from 900 to 1200 CE. This long-lasting period of higher hurricane activity during the Medieval Warm Period is consistent with findings in one of the previous studies.”

So the Medieval Warm Period is back, particularly since these sediments are in the Americas not in the European region to which alarmists tried to confine it prior to its execution. And yes, it was followed by a downward trend through the Little Ice Age. And then we get to the current interval and the recovery from the relatively inactive period.

Well, we say “relatively inactive”. But in the late 1800s when there are observations of hurricanes as well as proxy measures, the observations are well above the proxy numbers. Which the authors admit means the proxies may not pick up all the hurricanes that actually happened. So the past may have been even worse than the graph shows which, if true, blows away the notion that colder periods have better weather in that regard either.

Whether or not it’s so, the reconstruction as it stands, during time periods where consistent data sets are used, already blows apart any theory that hurricanes are new hazards tied to greenhouse gas emissions. They’ve happened since forever, and there were plenty of times in the past when they were worse than the present.

The authors also ask whether they were mainly controlled by external causes like volcanic eruptions. Their answer is no, they seem to follow their own pacing based on internal climate variability. Even if no one quite understands how it works. Thus, hurricane counts vary over time for reasons that have nothing to do with us, and measures from throwing sacrificial victims into volcanoes to throwing CO2 into underground receptacles will not appease them.

On the other hand, building a house of brick not straw, depending on resilience, actually will help.

3 comments on “Hurricanes, then and now”

  1. One of the worst storms ever recorded in England, the Great storm of 1703, has been calculated from contemporary accounts to have been an extratropical cyclone comparable to a category 2 hurricane. Since this occurred at one of the coldest periods in the Little Ice Age it does rather cast doubt on the theory that cold temperatures result in better weather.

  2. Can't even go to the gym without one of the TV's blasting CNN's coverage of Milton... And ofc the reporter blamed the severity of this Category 3 storm on "climate change & melting ice caps" 🤦🏻‍♀️

  3. I know what you mean,Gwen Fritz,about TV's in public places.They're often tuned to a mainstream news station.Even picking up a pizza at Pizzaville,one might have to listen to CITY-TV,Toronto,with their far-left bias on all things.If only for a minute or two.If I'm to sit down in a place for a meal and drinks,I might ask bartender to change channel if they have news on.But usually the TV's there have sports playing.

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