Fill in the X and Y and this claim gets repeated ad nauseum around the world, based on glossy consultant reports that governments seem to be unable to resist commissioning and then beating people over the head with. The first question to ask is: “Is the report’s ‘business-as-usual’ baseline by any chance the RCP8.5 scenario?” If the answer is yes, into the trash can it goes. You’re being lied to. The second question to ask is, if we do make your desired deep emission cuts, will it prevent the climate damages you foretell? If the answer is yes, into the trash can it goes. You’re being lied to. We already know that the same modeling techniques that predict dramatic warming also say policies like Kyoto and Paris won’t change the future path of warming, to say nothing of small local policies. The third question is, will the proposed policies cost more than the supposed damages they prevent? The answer is yes, by a long shot. So guess where your recommendation goes.