An item in The Atlantic “Weekly Planet” informs us that the Netherlands is overrun with “Louisiana Crawfish” and “‘You Will Never Eat Yourself Out of This Crisis” whereas they will eat everything including one another, can walk (and breathe) on land, dig burrows three feet long that dump your field into the sea and generally be appalling. Evidently it’s one of those niche issues: “In the 1980s, it was brought to the Netherlands as food, and people naively released the animals into the environment.” And if they do get eaten, which the Dutch seem oddly reluctant to do despite the bit where you “slurp the flavored juices out of the head”, it will be by other invasive species. But what’s weird is that the actual story doesn’t mention climate once. Have you gone sane?
Perhaps. Especially as we also note that Scientific American, not prone to rationality on climate, sent an email teaser on Sept. 25:
“For the first time ever, Hawaii is under its third hurricane watch of the year – Hurricane Nolo is about 200 miles south of the Big Island and its path is uncertain. Here’s why the islands are getting hammered by storms.”
And you just know what they’re going to say, right? Except they didn’t say it. Instead the article said this “unprecedented hurricane season… for the state” was “brought about by an exceptionally strong El Niño and a dose of bad luck.” And the only appearance of the word “climate” in the entire piece was “El Niño – the cyclical climate event that shifts a pool of warm water in the equatorial Pacific Ocean eastward.” We could still quibble about “unprecedented” on the basis that reliable records only go back to about 1950. But instead we congratulate them for using their brains instead of their talking points.
By contrast National Geographic sticks to the old rant, in this case under the headline and deck:
“The Treasures Emerging From Turkey’s Dying Lakes/ Climate change is exposing once-submerged churches, castles and petroglyphs – and threatening their survival.”
And then the article claims:
“Turkey is losing most of its lakes at an alarming rate: close to 75 percent are in the process of disappearing, many within the last decade. The trend is not unique to the country, according to the United Nations (UN) – which cites climate change and increased pollution around the globe as macro-causes – but Turkey is in particularly dire straits. Last year saw one of the most severe droughts in recent history, and 88 percent of the country faces desertification.”
Of course climate change being a statistical description of changes in weather somewhere over at least 30 years and not a causal force, it can’t be exposing anything or macro-causing it, and a decade of drought is not climate change either. Also, despite the suddenly-trendy notion after the Nepal-Tibet landslide that the earth moving was a new climate-driven thing prior to which mountains, plains, hillsides and that kind of stuff just sat there immobile, the article also says:
“How the basilica [Basilica of Saint Neophytos] ended up under the water in the first place speaks to the constant geophysical changes in this part of the world. ‘Turkey is a really geologically mercurial area, and stuff was changing really fast, even in antiquity,’ says Porter [“an Assistant Professor, Department of Religious Studies at Gonzaga University who specializes in early Christianity”]. ‘For instance, if you’ve been to Ephesus, you know that the harbor moved out very quickly in antiquity. Given the seismic activity, not just in antiquity, but over the last 2,000 years – yeah, stuff moves.’ Historical records show devastating earthquakes struck Nicaea throughout its history, with a magnitude 9 earthquake in 1065 AD demolishing the basilica for good.”
Egad. So all that stuff about nothing changing was just polemical rubbish?
You also always want to be leery when someone speaks of unprecedented conditions causing the worst of some sort of weather in recent history, because it’s an admission that they’re far from unprecedented. Indeed. As the Climate Change Post says, while attempting to deny its significance including using RCP8.5 to wither the place:
“Turkey is exposed to drought hazards rather frequently. Spatial and temporal analyses of drought hazards in Turkey have not yet been completed but, for instance, intensive drought periods in 1804, 1876 and 1928 caused the loss of crops and animals and the migration of farmers to other areas. In particular, drought in 1876 caused the loss of more than 200,000 people because of famine and disease epidemics. Moreover, in 1915, the 1930s and between 1970 and 1974, Turkey experienced serious drought hazards. Recent widespread droughts in Turkey occurred in 1973, 1977, 1990, and 1991. Also, 1988 and 1989 were the hardest drought years for the south-eastern Anatolia Region.”
It’s starting to sound like the place gets a lot of drought. And admit it: when you hear “Turkey” you think “dry Anatolian plateau”, right? (Or traditional but traditionally dry holiday fare, but don’t get us distracted by the miracle of spatchcocking.)
Perhaps “TÜRKİYE” does not spring to mind. But over at Anadolu Ajani which is of course, we cleverly surmise, the Anatolian news agency, they say “Türkiye faces one of worst droughts in 50 years, warns expert”. The expert who warns. But all the same only one of the worst in 50 years so unpleasant but far from untypical. Which isn’t something to dwell on in polite company, so that story only says:
“Ankara, the capital with a population of around 5.9 million, and the broader Central Anatolia region it anchors, recorded their lowest rainfall in the last 65 years. Ankara itself experienced its driest period in 47 years, severely impacting farming and water resources across the region.”
One wonders in passing how many regular readers of Anadolu Ajani do not know that Ankara is the capital of Turkey. But one wonders deliberatively on whether we know they had lower rainfall in Anatolia 66 years ago, and in Ankara 48, or whether we just do not know. One also suspects that groundwater management by the government of Tùúûürqui is even worse than in Western countries where it’s notoriously awful. But of course the expert who warns, “Professor Mikdat Kadioglu from Istanbul Technical University’s Department of Climate Science and Meteorological Engineering”, earns his keep with:
“Kadioglu stressed that urgent water conservation measures, agricultural adaptation strategies, and long-term climate policies are no longer optional but essential.”
Because as you immediately assumed, a reduction in Turkish GHG emissions will dramatically alter weather worldwide, turning Anatolia into the Amazon.
Back in 2021, when Turkey was having a drought that proved blah blah blah, the “Eurasian Research Institute” at Akhmet Yassawi University, which is not in Akhmet Yassawi (he was a 12th-century poet) nor in Turkey but in Turkistan which in turn is in Kazakhstan (which in turn is the world’s largest landlocked country so you learn all sorts of stuff at CDN) concluded blah blah blah as well:
“Climate change is one of the most important pressing issues affecting the entire world. This is especially true for Turkey due to its location. The Mediterranean Basin, where Turkey is located, is becoming a drier area due to the effects of anthropogenic climate change (Kayam and Cetin, 2012). As a result, average temperatures are slowly creeping up and rainfall is becoming scarcer, exacerbating the situation.”
And as proof of this thesis they mentioned not only “a big variation in precipitation between coastal and inland areas of the country” but also that “inland areas of Turkey already have harsh climates with limited precipitation” and:
“According to Kayam and Cetin (2012), previously Turkey has experienced severe droughts in 1973, 1974, 1983, 1989, 1990, 1996, 2001 and 2007. Same as the current drought, the previous events were caused by the lack of precipitation for an extended period of time.”
Dawk. And if there were droughts in the 1970s that were as bad as this one, it’s nothing new so not proof of change but of lack of same. Or, if you’re in the climate cult:
“While in the short term, the country needs sustained rainfall immediately, in the long term, the government of Turkey, which is yet to ratify the 2015 Paris Agreement, should prioritize environmental concerns on both national and local levels.”
So the madness is not over. Just, like many a holiday Turkey, overdone.
